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The price test at 1.1552 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test at 1.1552 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, prompting the execution of Scenario #2 to buy, resulting in a 20-pip rise in the pair.
The euro soared while the U.S. dollar significantly weakened after Donald Trump, abandoning his previous belligerent statements about destroying Iran, expressed readiness for a truce in the conflict with that country. The U.S. president stated that he is ready to negotiate, provided that Iran unblocks the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's declared willingness to engage in dialogue creates favorable conditions for reducing tension in the region, although, as we've become used to, the American leader may change his mind at any moment, so caution is advised with current euro purchases "on the hype."
In the first half of the day, a key moment will be the data on changes in German industrial orders. Successful growth in orders can strengthen the euro's position, reflecting a recovery in the manufacturing sector, while disappointing numbers could trigger a corrective movement. Simultaneously, information on changes in retail sales in the Eurozone is expected to be published. This indicator directly reflects consumer activity and, consequently, internal demand in the currency bloc.
No less significant will be the release of the producer price index (PPI) for the Eurozone. The dynamics of PPI may affect the European Central Bank's decisions regarding future monetary policy, which, in turn, will impact the euro.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will place more emphasis on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I will buy the euro at a price around 1.1728 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1780. At 1.1780, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Strong euro growth can still be expected. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1685 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.1728 and 1.1780 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1685 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1647, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair today will only return if Trump changes his mind. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price 1.1728 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.1685 and 1.1647 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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