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The price test at 1.1689 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose to around 1.1717.
Incoming information on progress in negotiations to resolve conflicts between the United States and Iran, as well as between Israel and Lebanon, positively impacted the euro. Investors closely monitoring the situation now see an opportunity to reduce uncertainty, enabling them to confidently allocate funds to assets previously considered overly risky. The euro, being one of the major global currencies, directly benefits from this redistribution of investments.
Today, market participants will watch for macroeconomic data releases from the Eurozone. Particularly important are the inflation figures from Germany, presented by the consumer price index. High inflation numbers could prompt the European Central Bank to adopt a stricter monetary policy. Concurrently, global financial markets are awaiting data on Italy's industrial production. An increase in production could be seen as a bullish signal for the euro, while a decline could heighten recession concerns and negatively impact the currency's value.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today at a price around 1.1696 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1721. At 1.1721, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Strong growth in the euro can only be expected with very strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1676 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the resistance levels of 1.1696 and 1.1721 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1676 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1649, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S.-Iran relations worsen. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1696 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the support levels of 1.1676 and 1.1649 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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