14.04.202607:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on April 14? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday, and none are important. In Germany, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, there is no significant event scheduled for today, and in the United States, only secondary data will be released: the weekly ADP report and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The weekly ADP report is even less significant than the monthly one. Recall that traders like to assess the state of the U.S. labor market based on Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. As for the PPI, it is currently meaningless, as the March inflation report already showed a strong increase. The situation may only get worse from here.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, one could highlight the speeches of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, if there was any point in doing so. However, there is no sense in this, as the market is now trading not on geopolitics but against geopolitics. For two consecutive months, the U.S. currency has risen solely due to geopolitical factors, with no other factors at play. Perhaps now it is time to correct all missed reports and events. Additionally, Donald Trump's policy in 2026 has not changed, which in itself is a strong reason to steer clear of the dollar. The status of a "safe haven" has not saved the U.S. currency for the second week.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in any direction, as macroeconomic and fundamental factors are expected to be weak, and the market has started to return the debt to the euro and the pound. The euro can be traded today from the range of 1.1745-1.1755, while the British pound can be traded from the ranges of 1.3476-1.3489 and 1.3529-1.3543. We still do not see grounds for strong and prolonged growth of the U.S. currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), so the trend of 2025 may resume.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.