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The price test at 158.70 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. However, the trade recorded a loss, as the pair did not decline as anticipated.
Statistical data showing that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) came in significantly below economists' forecasts added additional downward pressure on USD/JPY yesterday, but that was where the impact ended. The rise in the PPI below expected levels was a surprise for many market participants who were expecting a potential acceleration of inflation in early spring, which put pressure on the pair but did not lead to a major sell-off.
Today's sharp 13% increase in machinery and equipment orders in Japan did not impress buyers of the Japanese yen. This indicator, which is an important gauge of capital investment and future economic activity, typically elicits a positive market reaction. However, despite such a substantial jump, the yen remained relatively calm, showing only minor fluctuations.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 159.04 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.36 (thicker green line on the chart). At approximately 159.36, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.86 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 159.04 and 159.36.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level at 158.86 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 158.55, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.04 when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 158.86 and 158.55.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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