20.04.202618:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Smart Money Analysis: Bulls Maintain the Initiative

The GBP/USD pair continues to decline within a corrective pullback that began after liquidity was taken from the February 26 swing and the completion of imbalance 16. I do not expect a strong decline in GBP/USD unless the conflict in the Middle East escalates again this week. In that case, bears may resume their offensive, and technical patterns will not be enough to support the pound or the bulls. At present, the situation in the Middle East remains complex and tense, but it has not worsened. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively not been reopened, and negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have long been at a deadlock, continuing intermittently for years. Washington's main demand—that Tehran abandon nuclear weapons—is not being accepted. As the saying goes, "nothing has changed." The situation has not improved, but it has not worsened either—for now. Everything will be decided on Wednesday. If the war resumes, the market will inevitably react, and we will better understand the pair's next direction. A reaction to imbalance 19 (bullish) could push bulls into new attacks. Therefore, in the coming days, it is important to watch for the formation of a new bullish signal.

The latest rally in the pound began with a "Three Drives" pattern. Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very start of the move, and the trend has remained bullish throughout. At present, the truce is quite fragile, and the parties involved have not yet decided whether to continue negotiations or resume fighting. Talks could restart this week—but so could the war. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under a double blockade, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could potentially face the same situation. However, as of Monday, the overall situation has not materially changed. Both sides are signaling a willingness to move toward each other, but no concrete steps have been taken.

The "Three Drives" pattern, marked on the chart with a triangle, allowed bulls to take control. A second reaction was observed at imbalance 16, though such reactions are typically weaker than the first. The pair also swept liquidity from the February 26 high, and together these factors triggered the current corrective pullback, which may end around imbalance 19. Thus, in the near term, either a new bullish signal will form, or the bullish pattern will be invalidated, opening the way for bears to take control.

There was no significant economic news on Monday. Tomorrow, several reports will be released in the UK and the U.S., but greater interest lies in potential statements from Donald Trump later today. It is unlikely that the U.S. president will be pleased with the failure of negotiations with Iran, so new threats or even a resumption of missile strikes could follow.

In the United States, the broader fundamental backdrop still suggests that, in the long term, the dollar is more likely to weaken. Even the conflict between Iran and the U.S. does not fundamentally change this. Geopolitics temporarily revived demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, but overall, the long-term outlook for the U.S. currency remains challenging. The U.S. labor market continues to struggle, the economy is approaching recession, and the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not planning to tighten monetary policy in 2026. In addition, there have been several large protests across the U.S. directed personally against Donald Trump. From an economic perspective, I see no strong reasons for sustained dollar growth.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• UK – Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC)
• UK – Average Earnings Index (06:00 UTC)
• UK – Claimant Count Change (06:00 UTC)
• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
• U.S. – Retail Sales (12:30 UTC)

On April 21, the economic calendar includes five entries, with UK data drawing particular interest. The news flow may have some impact on market sentiment on Tuesday.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The "Three Drives" pattern signaled potential growth early on, followed by the formation of a bullish imbalance and confirmation signal. The price has swept liquidity from bullish swings on March 10 and March 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, yet bears have not launched an attack—another positive factor for the pound. Therefore, despite geopolitical uncertainty, I expect the upward movement to continue. Most likely, the euro will also continue to rise. My target for the pound is the 2026 high. The reaction to imbalance 16 triggered the current pullback, but a reaction to imbalance 19 could provide traders with a new buying signal.