22.04.202610:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: DXY. Forecast. Extension of truce with Iran pins dollar's price

Relevance up to 04:00 2026-04-23 UTC--4

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The US Dollar Index remains unchanged after President Trump extended the truce with Iran. The US blockade of Iranian vessels remains in place following the failure of a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the dollar's value against six major currencies, is trading near yesterday's high after a modest rise the day before.

The dollar continues to hold its ground after Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump will extend the truce with Iran while talks between the parties make no progress. This statement from Trump sharply contrasts with comments he made earlier the same day: "I expect bombings" if Iran does not meet his demands, adding that the military is "ready to fight."

Nevertheless, uncertainty over the peace talks between the US and Iran persists. The US blockade of Iranian vessels remains in effect, as attempts to hold a second round of talks between the two countries were unsuccessful. Vice President J.D. Vance canceled a planned visit to Islamabad for talks after Tehran informed Washington, via Pakistan, of its intention not to participate in the meeting. Iranian military officials warned of powerful attacks on predesignated targets in response to repeated threats from President Trump.

The US dollar also received support after retail sales data in the US came in stronger than expected. According to the US Census Bureau, retail sales rose 1.7% month-on-month in March versus a 0.7% increase (revised from 0.6%) in February. This reading beat market forecasts of 1.4%. On an annual basis, retail sales in March rose 4.0%, matching February's figure.

From a technical perspective, the dollar index is trading below all major moving averages; oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage in the market. Therefore, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Nevertheless, if prices manage to overcome the 50-day SMA, the bulls will have a chance.

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