23.04.202600:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast. Tension in the Strait of Hormuz Pressures the Euro

The euro continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar as ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz offset the positive effect of the truce extension between Washington and Tehran, which supports the dollar.

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD exchange rate has dropped to the round 1.1700 level, where the 100-day SMA is located, indicating a second consecutive day of downward momentum. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against a basket of six major currencies, stands around 98.55, close to weekly highs.

According to reports from Iranian media, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This information comes amid previously reported attacks on two other vessels in this strategically important waterway, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The escalation of the situation occurs amid the ongoing U.S. naval blockade. U.S. President Donald Trump extended the truce with Iran just a few hours before it was set to expire, indicating Washington's strategy to maintain economic pressure on Tehran. Iranian authorities, for their part, stated that the U.S. must end its blockade for negotiations to continue.

According to the New York Post, Trump hinted at negotiations with Iran as early as Friday, while the Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that Tehran has not yet made a final decision on its participation in the discussions.

In the context of disagreements over nuclear and missile programs, markets view the ceasefire as a temporary pause in military escalation, suggesting that the conflict may drag on. This restrains the decline of the U.S. dollar and limits the growth of the EUR/USD pair after a recent recovery at the beginning of the month.

At the same time, oil prices remain high, raising inflation risks and shaping expectations for central banks. Investors are likely anticipating that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, while markets consider potential rate hikes by the European Central Bank.

Regarding economic indicators, U.S. activity is expected to be low on Wednesday, and markets will focus on geopolitical events. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, the preliminary consumer confidence index for April fell to -20.6 from -16.3 previously, reaching its lowest level in more than 3 years, indicating deteriorating household sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is holding above key moving averages, but the relative strength index has dipped into the neutral zone, showing weakness among bulls. However, as long as the 200-day SMA has not changed its slope towards a downtrend, the bulls have a chance to regain their strength.