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President Donald Trump has radically shifted his rhetoric, saying that Washington is no longer rushing Tehran into a deal. In a Fox News interview, he denied rumors of a hard "three-to-five day window," stressing that the administration intends to wait for a "favorable agreement" rather than chase deadlines for the sake of midterm election ratings. Trump set a new target — next Sunday. At the same time he made clear that the current naval blockade of Iranian ports is a far more effective tool of pressure than massive bombings. In the president's view, the Iranians "hate the blockade" because it delivers a systemic blow to the economy that cannot be ignored.
Escalation at sea and the mine threat. Despite Trump's diplomatic courtesies toward Iran's "prudent" foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, the situation on the water remains extremely explosive. The conflict has spread well beyond the Persian Gulf: US forces intercepted three Iranian tankers in Asian waters, an act Tehran called piracy. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also seized two vessels, and Iranian commanders promised the opponent "surprises" the Pentagon might not be ready for. The main "surprise" could be a mine and explosive barrier. US military estimates say full clearance of the strait could take up to six months, which would effectively freeze the world's principal oil artery for the entire summer of 2026.
The current crisis vividly demonstrates the transformation of the global economy into a system of total confrontation through chokepoints. In the modern world, a state's power is defined not only by the number of aircraft carriers but also by control over critical segments:
Control over these points provides asymmetric leverage. A mistake in identifying such a chokepoint makes any economic pressure useless, but a precise strike — as with the current blockade of Iranian exports — can paralyze an entire country without a full-scale invasion. The world is watching whether the Trump administration has enough patience and resources to hold these control points while the adversary is willing to take radical countermeasures.
For the global financial system, it is irrelevant whether the fighting is "hot" or "frozen." The only factor that objectively matters is the stability of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At present, there is no progress in unblocking the Persian Gulf. That means the world is losing 8–15 million barrels of oil per day and about 20% of global LNG volumes. All the optimism of the past two weeks, driven by Trump's "fake" peace plans, is a product of media manipulation. In reality, the energy crisis today is at the same point it was in early April.
Modeling shows the world is moving toward a "point of no return." With the current supply shortfall of 10–12 million barrels per day (over 300 million barrels per month), global stocks are shrinking at an alarming rate. By early May 2026, aggregate resources (strategic reserves of developed countries, temporarily released Russian and Iranian oil, and floating storage buffers) will be almost completely exhausted. Washington has only three options left:
Iran's newfound agency
For Tehran, the current war has become a portal to regional great?power status. Control of the Persian Gulf and the ability to menace global infrastructure have given Iran real agency. Without these levers, the country risks becoming an isolated "vassal" of China with ruined industry and a degrading economy. Naturally, Iran does not intend to release the stranglehold on the global economy — it now dictates terms to the United States despite US military superiority. Moreover, even with limited exports (1.5 million bpd), Iran is earning windfall revenues of $2–3 billion per month thanks to soaring prices.
TACO won't help. While the US shows an incapacity to control shipping traffic, Iran keeps monetizing the chaos. The situation has reached an impasse: Trump is desperately looking for a way to arrive at the November elections not necessarily as the victor, but at least without losing face. Meanwhile, Iran is steadily raising the stakes, knowing that time and the West's emptying reserves are working in its favor. Russell Hardy, CEO of the largest independent oil trader Vitol, speaking at a summit in Lausanne, stated that the loss of one billion barrels of oil and petroleum products is not a gloomy forecast but already a fait accompli. Even if hostilities stop immediately, that colossal volume of "lost" crude is already predetermined by the paralysis of infrastructure. Since late February, when the first strikes on Iran began, roughly 12 million barrels per day have disappeared from the global balance.
That is twice the size of all strategic reserve interventions ever undertaken. Hardy, whose career spans nearly 40 years, says the current collapse even eclipses Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Back then, there were still spare capacities in the system, and the market was more compact. Today, all the "insurance" oil volumes are locked behind the Strait of Hormuz, delivering a direct hit to the global economy. And oil is only the tip of the iceberg:
The Wall Street dilemma, social rifts and long-term echo
Skepticism is growing over Donald Trump's ability to "solve" the situation. While equity indexes hover near highs, investors pin hopes on the mythical ability of the 47th president to end the conflict by fiat. In private conversations, the abbreviation TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is being tossed around, with people expecting another dramatic turn toward peace. However, as RBC Capital Markets analysts note, "it takes two for TACO," and Tehran shows no sign of conceding, leaving Trump hostage to the escalation he helped create. "If the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened within three months, the situation will evolve into a macroeconomic problem that will push the world into recession," warns Frederic Lasser of Gunvor.
According to Trafigura CEO Richard Hultum, rich Western countries will be able to "buy" physical security for their consumers at the cost of insane budgetary spending. At the same time, developing countries in Asia and Africa will face collapsing demand and real resource shortages. The allocation of shortages will be markedly unfair. Moreover, even in the most optimistic scenario, the effects on refining will be felt for years.
Amrita Sen, head of analytics at Energy Aspects, emphasizes that even if the strait's throughput is restored to half capacity by the end of May, the market will still irreversibly lose 450 million barrels of diesel and gasoline. Given the lack of spare refining capacity worldwide, this deficit cannot be filled before 2030. The world that grew used to cheap energy is gone; it has been replaced by a reality where fuel becomes a luxury available only to the few.
The Old World chooses autonomy
Despite the war in the Middle East, the European currency is showing remarkable resilience. Ursula von der Leyen openly calls for European consolidation to prevent domination by Washington, Beijing or Ankara. Those words are backed by market sentiment: the euro has recovered to $1.18, posting the second?best performance among G?10 currencies. Investors are buying bullish options en masse, targeting $1.20, and ignoring forecasts of a collapse in European industry. The market increasingly prices in a structural weakening of the dollar, and euro dynamics are now driven less by Fed interest rates than by Brussels' ability to distance itself from unpredictable Trump policy.
The Iranian ricochet
The US military campaign against Iran has produced results that were likely unplanned in the Oval Office. Instead of expected national rallying, Trump faces a deep split in his electorate and a decline in domestic political influence. On the external front, it is even more ironic: the energy crisis triggered by the war has become a powerful catalyst for the "green transition." Seeking to escape dependence on unstable fossil fuels and unpredictable sea routes through Hormuz, countries are accelerating solar and wind deployment. Thus, Trump's attempt to "save the world" by controlling oil has only hastened the day when that oil is no longer needed. Washington risks being left alone with its aircraft carriers in a region that is no longer the planet's energy center, while Europe and China build new autonomous energy systems.
The future head of the US central bank will not be obedient to the president either. The Senate Banking Committee hearings on April 23, 2026, became a moment of truth for Kevin Warsh. The Fed chair nominee, put forward by Donald Trump, faced a blunt question from Senator John Kennedy: would he become a "puppet" of the White House? Warsh's reply was terse and unequivocal: "Absolutely not." He stressed that the independence of monetary policy is not a privilege but a tool for making quality decisions without regard for political distractions.
This statement came under unprecedented pressure from the Oval Office. Just two days earlier, Trump said on CNBC he would be disappointed if the new Fed chair did not immediately slash rates. The president dreams of a cut to 1% this year, but Warsh has shown caution, refusing to give the market "preliminary signals." While Trump demands cheap money, Kevin Warsh focuses on institutional autonomy. At the upcoming meeting on April 28–29, experts almost unanimously expect the rate to be kept in the current 3.5%–3.75% range, which will be the first sign of divergence between the White House's course and the future Fed leadership.
The US dollar
Alongside the financial battles, geopolitics continues to keep the US currency afloat. The dollar index has reached a weekly high. Investors are once again using the dollar as a safe-haven amid the complete lack of progress with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed. Donald Trump has shifted to a strategy of strategic waiting, calling the current ceasefire "open-ended." Washington has taken the position that "the ball is in the opponent's court," waiting for a new peace proposal from Iran. However, for the economy, this pause looks more alarming than reassuring: the ongoing blockade supports high energy prices and fuels inflationary risks.
23 April, 2:00 / Australia / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 51.0 / actual: 49.8 / forecast: 49.0 / AUD/USD – down
The Australian manufacturing sector in March 2026 moved into stagnation for the first time in five months, slipping to 49.8 points. The main pressure came from:
With no load on production capacities, employment growth has turned into staff cuts, and business confidence collapsed, triggering a sharp drawdown in inventories. The situation is worsened by geopolitics: the conflict in the Middle East has caused major supply chain disruptions and driven input?cost inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high. If the April reading falls to the forecast 49.0 points, it will weaken the Australian dollar.
23 April, 3:30 / Japan / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 53.0 / actual: 51.6 / forecast: 51.2 / USD/JPY – up
Japan's manufacturing PMI for March was revised up to 51.6. However, the indicator showed a clear slowdown from February's four-year high (53.0). Hiring slowed to its weakest pace since the start of 2026 despite firms' attempts to address labor shortages. Inflationary pressure intensified:
Business caution amid the war in the Middle East cooled business sentiment. If the April index reaches the forecast 51.2 points, the yen will weaken.
23 April, 7:00 / Eurozone / Passenger car registrations in March / prev.: -3.9% / actual: 1.4% / forecast: 5.5% / EUR/USD – up
The EU car market in February 2026 showed signs of recovery: passenger car registrations rose 1.4% (to 865,437 units) after a decline in January. Growth was supported by three of the four largest economies:
France, however, recorded a plunge of 14.7%. The electric vehicle (BEV) segment deserves special attention: its market share rose to 18.8%, and registrations jumped 20.6%, especially in Italy and Germany. If March sales growth reaches the forecast 5.5%, it will strengthen the euro.
23 April, 10:30 / Germany / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 50.9 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.3 / EUR/USD – down
German industry in March showed unexpected resilience. The PMI was revised to 52.2 — the highest since May 2022. Order growth was paradoxically driven by customers building inventories amid fears of shortages due to the war in the Middle East. Those same fears caused the worst delivery delays from Asia since July 2022. German manufacturers faced a powerful inflationary shock:
If the April index falls to the forecast 51.3 amid the logistics crisis, the euro will weaken.
23 April, 11:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 50.8 / actual: 51.6 / forecast: 50.7 / EUR/USD – down
The eurozone manufacturing sector in March 2026 showed unexpected strength. The PMI rose to 51.6, recording the strongest rise since mid-2022. Growth came in a paradoxical context: the war in the Middle East caused major logistical disruptions, forcing companies to ramp up production (a 7-month high) and leading to the first rise in order books in a long time. Export orders stabilized, but employment continues to fall. Price pressures remain critical:
Despite current readings, business confidence is falling under geopolitical strain. If the April index drops to the forecast 50.7 points, the euro will weaken.
23 April, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 51.7 / actual: 51.0 / forecast: 50.2 / GBP/USD – down
UK manufacturing cooled in March 2026 — the PMI fell to 51.0. The outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East destabilized energy markets, forcing companies to cut output for the first time in six months. Nevertheless, the index remains above the psychological 50 mark, and new orders show moderately positive dynamics. The main negative factor was explosive rises in oil and gas costs, which forced about half of the manufacturers to raise prices. Rising uncertainty continues to undermine long-term business optimism. If the April reading falls to the forecast 50.2, the pound will weaken.
23 April, 13:00 / United Kingdom / CBI Industrial Trends Survey (business optimism) for Q2 / prev.: 31 / actual: -19 / forecast: -23 / GBP/USD – down
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey recorded a sharp deterioration in manufacturing sentiment: optimism dropped to -19%, and export prospects are assessed at -12%. Although this is the "least negative" result in the past 18 months, fundamental problems remain: clients are delaying orders and cutting spending. Profitability is being "burned" by:
23 April, 15:30 / Canada / Producer Price Index (annual) for March / prev.: 5.6% / actual: 5.4% / forecast: 6.5% / USD/CAD – down Canada's year-on-year producer price growth in February 2026 slowed to 5.4%, still well above the long?term average of 3.46%. Despite a slight decline from January peaks, industrial inflation remains high, reflecting volatile raw?material and intermediate goods prices. The market expects a sharp acceleration in March. If the figure reaches the forecast 6.5%, it will strengthen the Canadian dollar.
23 April, 15:30 / Canada / Raw materials price growth for March / prev.: 8.0% / actual: 8.6% / forecast: 14.0% / USD/CAD – down
Commodity sector inflation in Canada accelerated to 8.60% in February 2026, more than double the long-term average (3.74%). Commodity price growth remains persistent, though far from pandemic-era highs. This indicator is key for an export?oriented economy and directly pressures monetary policy. If March's reading reaches the forecast 14.0%, the Canadian dollar will strengthen.
23 April, 15:30 / USA / Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March / prev.: 0.20 / actual: -0.11 / forecast: 0.20 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
Economic activity in the Chicago Fed's district unexpectedly turned negative in February 2026, falling to -0.11. The main negative contributions came from:
Personal consumption and the housing market showed only symbolic growth. The data point to a local slowdown in economic expansion at the end of winter. If March's report shows a recovery to the forecast 0.20, the US dollar will strengthen.
23 April, 15:30 / USA / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 218k / actual: 207k / forecast: 212k / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down
The US labor market remains resilient. Initial unemployment claims for the week ending 11 April fell to 207,000 — the largest weekly decline in two months and better than expected. Despite a slight rise in the 4-week moving average and an increase in continuing claims to 1,818,000, overall dynamics point to limited layoffs. If next week's claims rise to the forecast 212,000, the dollar will weaken.
23 April, 16:45 / USA / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (advance) / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 52.3 / forecast: 52.0 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down
The US manufacturing PMI in March 2026 held at 52.3, confirming sector expansion. Growth was driven by domestic demand and firms building inventories amid the Middle East conflict. Export sales remain pressured by tariffs, and logistics disruptions caused the longest delivery times in 3.5 years. Input cost inflation hit a peak not seen since August 2025, forcing firms to raise factory gate prices at the fastest pace in seven months. If the advance April index falls to the forecast 52.0, the greenback will weaken.
23 April, 18:00 / USA / Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for April (advance) / prev.: 10 / actual: 11 / forecast: 12 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
Manufacturing activity in the Kansas City Fed region continued to rise in March 2026, reaching 11 points. Positive dynamics were seen in:
An important signal was the recovery of the employment index (7 points vs. -6 in February), although export orders and capital spending remain weak. Firms remain optimistic, expecting further strengthening over the next six months. If the April index rises to the forecast 12 points, the US dollar will strengthen.
Consumer confidence in the United Kingdom fell to -21 points in March 2026, a one-year low. The main source of pessimism was the war with Iran. Petrol prices jumped by 50%, forcing households to sharply cut big?ticket purchase plans and raise their savings rate (up 6 points). The largest drop was in expectations for the country's overall economic prospects over the next 12 months. According to Neil Bellamy of GfK, Britons doubt the national economy's ability to withstand shocks from the Middle East conflict. Nevertheless, a rise in the indicator would strengthen the British pound.
24 April, 02:30 / Japan / Headline CPI (y/y) for March / prev.: 1.5% / actual: 1.3% / forecast: 1.5% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's headline annual inflation slowed to 1.3% in February 2026, the weakest reading since spring 2022. Deflationary pressure was driven by softer rice prices and government subsidies for:
At the same time, inflation in communications (6.8%) and household goods (1.2%) accelerated.
On a monthly basis, the CPI fell for the third consecutive month. Although inflation missed forecasts, the yen's status as a safe-haven currency amid the war is supporting the Japanese yen.
24 April, 02:30 / Japan / Core CPI (y/y) for March / prev.: 2.0% / actual: 1.6% / forecast: 1.8% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) slowed to 1.6% in February, the weakest gain in four years. The measure fell below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time since March 2022. Despite the slowdown—partly the result of government measures to stabilize living costs—the BoJ keeps its policy rate at 0.75% and says it may tighten if the economic slowdown triggered by the Iran conflict proves temporary. Markets price in the risk of a renewed inflation pickup in March due to higher oil prices, which supports the yen.
24 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Retail sales (y/y) for March / prev.: 4.8% / actual: 2.5% / forecast: 1.3% / GBP/USD – down
UK retail sales grew 2.5% y/y in February 2026. While the result beat consensus (2.1%), it marked a sharp slowdown from January's four-year high of 4.8%. Current growth remains above the long-term average (1.90%), but the month-on-month downtrend indicates cooling consumer activity under inflationary pressure. The significant loss of momentum in sales weighs on the pound.
24 April, 11:00 / Germany / Ifo Business Climate Index for April (advance) / prev.: 88.4 / actual: 86.4 / forecast: 85.5 / EUR/USD – down
German business climate deteriorated to 86.4 in March 2026 — the weakest level in 13 months. The sharp escalation in the Middle East hit business expectations, which plunged from 90.2 to 86.0. Current conditions remain at 86.7. Negative sentiment has spread across key sectors:
Ifo President Clemens Fuest said the war with Iran has effectively "frozen" hopes for economic recovery and triggered a spike in uncertainty. If the April index falls to the forecast 85.5, the euro will weaken.
24 April, 15:30 / Canada / Retail sales (m/m) for February / prev.: -0.1% / actual: 1.5% / forecast: 1.3% / USD/CAD – up
Canadian consumer activity showed signs of recovery in January 2026: retail sales rose 1.5% y/y after a slight decline the previous month. Growth remains well below the long?term average (4.63%), reflecting household caution. Markets watch sales dynamics as an indicator of domestic demand resilience. If the March data confirm forecasted growth of 1.3%, amid global uncertainty, this could weaken the Canadian dollar.
4 April, 17:00 / US / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (advance) for April / prev.: 56.6 / actual: 53.3 / forecast: 47.6 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down
Consumer sentiment in early April 2026 plunged 11% to a historic low of 47.6. The survey recorded widespread pessimism: 98% of respondents, surveyed before news of the temporary ceasefire, linked their fears to:
24 April, 17:00 / USA / University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (advance) for April / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.8% / forecast: 4.8% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up One?year inflation expectations in April 2026 jumped to 4.8% — the largest monthly rise in a year. Five?year expectations also hit a five-month high at 3.4%. The rise is directly linked to the energy shock and supply instability. This data is a warning sign for the Fed: if expectations remain elevated, it may require keeping policy tight for longer. If the 4.8% expectation is confirmed in the final reading, the dollar will strengthen.
23 April, 18:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD 24 April, 11:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Martin Schlegel (Swiss National Bank) / USD/CHF, EUR/USD
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled this week. Their comments usually trigger volatility in FX markets as they can signal future policy intentions.
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