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Bitcoin and Ethereum surged significantly during today's Asian trading hours. Bitcoin reached $79,400, while Ethereum jumped to $2,400. However, this euphoria quickly turned into a major sell-off.
In recent weeks, the crypto community has been observing a troubling trend: Bitcoin's on-chain activity has sharply declined, reaching levels typical of the 2018 bear market. This is surprising given that the value of digital gold has grown considerably since then, seemingly boosting user interest and engagement. However, this suggests there are currently no major buyers in the market, and it is unlikely that current prices will hold for long.
On the other hand, another explanation for this situation exists. One of the most likely assumptions is that the decline in on-chain activity reflects a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's demand structure. It is quite possible that an increasing share of cryptocurrency transactions and operations is taking place through centralized platforms, such as exchanges and custodial services, rather than directly on the decentralized Bitcoin network. This means that when institutional investors and major market players purchase or trade Bitcoin, they often do so without directly involving the blockchain. Their operations are channeled through intermediaries, reducing the visibility of activity on the public ledger.
From a positive perspective, this trend could signal market maturity and adaptation to new conditions, in which the convenience and speed of transactions offered by centralized solutions begin to prevail over direct on-chain activity for a specific user segment. However, from a negative perspective, the concentration of assets in a few hands among major players and the diminishing decentralization are detrimental to the future of digital gold.
As for my intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to trade by capitalizing on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating that the long-term bull market—which is still very much intact—will continue.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $77,900, targeting an increase to $78,700. At around $78,700, I will exit the buy positions and immediately sell on the rebound. Important! Before buying at a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
Scenario #2: I can also consider buying Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $77,500 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout back to $77,900 and $78,700.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $77,500, targeting a decline to the level of $76,300. At around $76,300, I will exit the sell positions and immediately buy on the rebound. Important! Before selling at a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
Scenario #2: I can also consider selling Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $77,900 if there is no market reaction to its upside breakout back to $77,500 and $76,300.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the price reaches around $2,342, targeting an increase to $2,368. At around $2,368, I will exit the positions and immediately sell on the rebound. Important! Before buying at a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
Scenario #2: I can also consider buying Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,315 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout back to $2,342 and $2,368.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the price reaches around $2,315, targeting a decline to $2,267. At around $2,267, I will exit the positions and immediately buy on the rebound. Important! Before selling at a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
Scenario #2: I can also sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $2,342 if there is no market reaction to its upside breakout back to $2,315 and $2,267.
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