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The EUR/USD pair continues to move within a weak corrective pullback. There is only a small distance left to the "bullish" imbalance 13, but this pattern has not yet been triggered. Thus, no buy signal has been formed so far, though one may appear in the coming days. This week is difficult to forecast, as today marks the Federal Reserve's final meeting for Jerome Powell, while tomorrow's calendar is packed with various reports and meetings from other central banks. From this evening through Thursday evening, the market may experience a full 24 hours of chaos and volatility. I will not attempt to predict movements over the next 24 hours, as any of the listed events could trigger market reactions. Even if most reports are ignored, price movements may still be highly volatile. Therefore, I prefer to filter out short-term fluctuations and focus on the bigger picture: there is a bullish trend, a bullish pattern, and we are waiting for a bullish signal.
In the current situation, traders can only wait for imbalance 13 to play out. There are no other clear buying zones at the moment, and I still consider the trend to be bullish. Thus, I am only interested in buy signals. There are no bearish patterns at present. The last buy signal from imbalance 12 worked perfectly, with the euro gaining about 270 points. Those trades could have been closed with solid profits. There have been no grounds for selling.
It is also worth noting that the entire rise of the U.S. dollar from January to March was driven solely by geopolitics. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and bulls launched an attack. At present, the truce remains fragile but intact. I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe in the end of the bullish trend, despite the break of important trend-forming lows. The price movement over the past two months could turn into a bearish trend if geopolitics continue to deteriorate. However, markets often price in the most pessimistic scenario in advance, attempting to anticipate the most extreme developments. Therefore, it is possible that traders have already fully priced in the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. In that case, bears no longer have an advantage.
The overall technical picture is currently clear. First, price showed no reaction to imbalance 11. Second, price reacted to imbalance 12, forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance 13 has formed, which serves as a zone of interest for future buy trades and as a support area for the euro.
The news background on Wednesday has started to attract traders' attention, but, for example, the initial German inflation report did not trigger any market movement. The Consumer Price Index rose to 2.9% year-over-year in April, which can be considered moderate growth given the global energy crisis. Many had expected much higher inflation dynamics. For now, the market continues to wait for the Fed meeting.
There are still many reasons for bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Donald Trump's policies, which led to a significant weakening of the dollar last year, have not changed. In the coming months, the U.S. currency may occasionally strengthen due to risk aversion, but this factor requires ongoing escalation in the Middle East. I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will drive bears in the long term?
News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On April 30, the economic calendar contains "only" twelve major entries. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Thursday could be very strong throughout the entire day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news background shifted sharply two months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or complete. Therefore, bulls may well continue their advance in the near term unless geopolitics suddenly shift toward renewed escalation.
Bulls had the opportunity to open buy trades based on the signal from imbalance 12, and the upward movement may continue toward this year's highs. A new imbalance 13 has also formed, which could generate another bullish signal in the near future. For uninterrupted euro growth, the Middle East conflict would need to move toward lasting peace, which is not currently the case. However, bears are not gaining additional reasons to attack either. In the near term, I would rely primarily on technical analysis, which currently points to bullish dominance.
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