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The test of the price at 1.1693 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to turn down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 30 pips.
Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged. This decision was made by a majority vote. However, three members of the Federal Reserve expressed their concerns regarding the prospects of lowering rates. These committee members, known for their hawkish stance, warned of the risks of premature monetary policy easing, which could trigger increased inflationary pressures. They emphasized the importance of obtaining more substantial evidence of sustained inflation slowdown before considering the possibility of rate cuts.
This morning, attention will be focused on key macroeconomic indicators from the European Union. The expected data on GDP growth and the unemployment rate are of primary importance. Additionally, the Eurozone consumer price index report will be published. The dynamics of the CPI are a crucial indicator of inflation, serving as a fundamental benchmark for central banks when setting monetary policy. High inflation may prompt the European Central Bank to tighten monetary policy as early as this summer.
Today, the ECB meeting will also take place. Experts unanimously agree that rates will remain unchanged. However, strong GDP data and rising inflation could strengthen the case for a rate hike in the first half of this year, which would support the European currency.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1676 (green line on the chart), with a target rise to 1.1707. At the level of 1.1707, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1655 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise towards the opposite levels of 1.1676 and 1.1707 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1655 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1611, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return today if the ECB adopts a soft position. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1676 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1655 and 1.1611 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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