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Today, the price of Brent oil surged to a military high after Axios reported that U.S. President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options regarding Iran, signaling a potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East. This statement instantly triggered a wave of apprehension in global energy markets, where any hints of military intervention in the region— a key oil supplier—traditionally lead to a sharp rise in prices.
As I mentioned earlier, Brent, the international benchmark, reacted particularly sensitively to the news. Given the already tense geopolitical situation, information about potential military actions against Iran is perceived as a direct risk of new disruptions in supplies that are already nearly nonexistent. This, in turn, fuels speculative demand and drives prices up as traders price in potential new supply interruptions and rising costs.
The news of President Trump's briefing on military options against Iran became a catalyst for a new spike in prices. The oil market, already alarmed by past events and regional tensions, reacted immediately. Investors and traders, fearing an escalation of the conflict, began actively buying oil futures contracts, driving Brent prices sharply higher. This event highlights the fragility of the balance in the oil market and its strong dependence on geopolitical factors, especially in the context of the Middle East.
The global benchmark has risen by 7.1%, surpassing the $126 per barrel mark and reaching its highest intraday level in four years, while the price of West Texas Intermediate oil jumped above $110. It is expected that U.S. Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper will inform Trump today about the feasibility of resuming hostilities.
Let me remind you that a ceasefire has been in effect since early April, but recent attempts to arrange a meeting of negotiators from both sides have not been successful: both the U.S. and Iran continue to block the vital Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, Trump discussed steps that the U.S. could take to extend the blockade while minimizing the impact on American consumers during a meeting with oil and trade company executives, which served as an initial warning to the oil market about the impending conflict.
Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $113.40. This will allow targeting $118.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The further target will be in the area of $124.80. In the event of a decline in oil, bears will attempt to regain control at $106.80. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to bull positions and push oil down to a low of $100.00, with the potential to reach $92.50.
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