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The US and Iran are drawing near to signing a memorandum to end the war, but is everything really that rosy?
According to reports, the White House administration believes the US and Iran are on the verge of a preliminary agreement that could bring an end to the military confrontation in the Persian Gulf region.
Axios reports that the American side has sent its proposal and expects an official reply from Tehran within the next 48 hours. The document is described as a "one-page memorandum of understanding," consisting of 14 points, which is intended to form the basis for a ceasefire and the launch of more detailed negotiations.
Reportedly, the key provisions of the draft document include reciprocal concessions on the main contentious issues:
- From the US side: Tehran undertakes a moratorium on uranium enrichment, agrees to unannounced IAEA inspections, and commits never to seek nuclear weapons.
- From Iran's side: Washington agrees to the phased lifting of economic sanctions and the unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian assets.
Separately, the memorandum addresses the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides would lift restrictions on transit. Iran would reopen the strait to shipping, while the US would abandon a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
The most difficult issue remains the length of the moratorium on uranium enrichment. Initially Tehran proposed a 5-year pause, whereas Washington insisted on 20 years. Currently, sources say, the parties are seeking a compromise in the 12–15-year range.
But, while everyone rushes to buy risk assets and sell oil, it is worth recalling the failure of similar early peace talks. The previous round of talks in Islamabad in April ended without results, largely because of Tehran's hardline position on the nuclear question. Back then Iran rejected the US proposal for a full halt to uranium enrichment, which derailed the diplomatic attempt at settlement. Washington's demand for a complete cessation of nuclear activity was perceived in Tehran as an encroachment on the sovereign right to peaceful nuclear technology. The present compromise with a moratorium (rather than an outright ban) and defined timelines became the "diplomatic bridge" that was missing in April. Time will tell what comes of it.
The news of a likely truce produced an immediate market reaction. Investors, pricing in a reduction in geopolitical risk, triggered a sharp capital rotation. With the dollar weakening, the euro and the pound posted solid gains. Black gold prices moved lower on expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will be unlocked—the key artery through which about 20% of global oil flows.
Despite the optimism, the agreement is not yet finalized. There remain divisions within Iran's political establishment, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed skepticism about Tehran's willingness to fulfill its commitments.
The next 48 hours will be critical for Tehran's response, on which the region's move from escalation to long-term stabilization depends.
Technical picture, EUR/USD
Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers should now consider how to take the 1.1800 level. Only this will allow a test of 1.1825. From there, a move to 1.1848 would be possible, but achieving that without support from major players will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1895. In the event of a decline only to around 1.1756, I expect some serious action from large buyers. If there is nobody there, it would be prudent to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1725 or to open long positions from 1.1701.
Technical picture, GBP/USD
As for the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3654. Only this will allow a target of 1.3683, above which breaking through will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3707 area. In the event of a fall, bears will try to seize control at 1.3627. If they succeed, a break of the range will deliver a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3598, with a prospect of reaching 1.3567.
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