14.05.202611:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Battle for new world order: gambit in Beijing and noose in Hormuz. Trader's calendar on May 14–15

US voyage to Beijing

The two?day round of talks now underwayunderway in China's capital between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has become the focal point for global capital in 2026. With the global economy rocked by inflationary shocks from the conflict in Iran, the financial world is eagerly parsing any signals of stabilization in relations between the two superpowers. Investors do not entertain illusions about the likelihood of a comprehensive trade pact, understanding that strategic rivalry has gone too far; nevertheless, the mere prospect of a shift to a model of managed competition offers hope of a temporary market recovery.

The main bet is on a framework de?escalation that could include partial rollbacks of mutual tariffs and Beijing commitments to large purchases of US agricultural and energy products, allowing the 47th president to claim a major political victory. The technological confrontation remains the sharpest point of the summit, with access to advanced semiconductors and AI architecture at stake. Markets are waiting anxiously for any relaxation of controls on exports of next?generation chips, including Nvidia H200 models, and for the resumption of talks on supplies of critical minerals and EV components.

Any progress here could spark a powerful rally in Asian tech stocks. Diplomats will also need to tackle the vital task of lowering risks in the Taiwan Strait by restoring direct military hotlines and adopting rhetoric that rules out accidental clashes. Even symbolic steps to prevent a military crisis will be read by investors as a green light to buy risk assets, although in the longer term, traders' focus will inevitably shift back to sky?high oil prices and the Federal Reserve's uncompromising stance. Against a backdrop of increased dollar volatility and mounting worries about global price pressures, Beijing and Washington are being forced to find points of contact on financial stability.

Analysts highlight several key scenarios after the leaders' talks conclude:

• The most positive outcome for investors would be a limited trade truce that boosts demand for shares of Asian exporters and semiconductor companies.
• The most realistic scenario is a constructive but largely inconsequential dialogue that brings only brief relief, after which markets will return to debating inflation shocks and interest rate trajectories.
• The worst, albeit less likely, outcome is a complete breakdown of talks or an escalation of aggressive rhetoric over Taiwan, which would instantly trigger a massive flight to safe?haven assets, including gold and US Treasuries.

Who will hold the keys to Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz has effectively transformed from a combat zone into an arena of sophisticated geopolitical bargaining, where Iran is trying on the role of chief gatekeeper. The silent transit of VLCC?class oil giants with transponders turned off, and the flow of Qatari gas via Pakistani intermediaries indicates Tehran has begun selectively opening the gates, demonstrating de facto control over the route. This is not merely a temporary tactic but a bid to shape a new world order in which the right to use the strait becomes a privilege rather than a guaranteed international right.

This tactic allows Iran not only to curry favor with certain players but also to partially offset billions in losses from US sanctions through unofficial "fees" for safe passage, effectively turning a global energy artery into a private toll road. Such a situation is deeply alarming to traditional Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, for whom dependence on Tehran's terms would be a strategic dead end. Asian importers, already seeing more than a 13% drop in oil shipments and a fifth of their LNG volumes lost, are likewise unwilling to accept a system where their economic security is subject to Iranian whim. For Washington and the Trump administration, this scenario is entirely unacceptable.

Any agreement that cements Iran's role as regulator of the strait would nullify US military gains and reduce rhetoric about victory to empty words. Trump insists on a return to pre?crisis freedom of navigation, knowing that control of this "chokepoint" determines who really holds sway in the region. The logic of the current standoff leads to a grim conclusion: even if guns fall silent, the battle for the strait could drag on for decades. Iran is unlikely to relinquish its most powerful geopolitical leverage voluntarily, and the US cannot afford to concede defeat on freedom of navigation. If controlled transit becomes the norm, the conflict will simply shift into a phase of continuous boundary testing, where every tanker becomes a bargaining chip in an endless game of concessions and threats.

Fuel impasse

The essence of the conflict has finally narrowed to a single question: whose hand will be on the valve that controls global energy flows — and the answer will reshape the future of the Persian Gulf for years to come. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser issued a worrying forecast: world stocks of gasoline and jet fuel are rapidly being depleted. If the Strait of Hormuz is not unblocked soon, the global market will face a critical shortage even before the peak summer season. According to him, since the start of the Iranian conflict, the global economy has already lost a billion barrels of oil, and each week of the ongoing blockade removes another 100 million from the system. The situation is worsened by the fact that existing storage tanks, which long served as the only buffer, are practically empty.

Although Brent oil temporarily pulled back to about $100 amid diplomatic hints from the Trump administration, the physical market remains extremely tight, forcing Asian countries to sharply ration consumption while the West scrambles to tap remaining reserves. JPMorgan analysts confirm the seriousness of the moment, pointing out that by early June, commercial stocks in developed countries will reach levels of operational stress. That means the world will lose the ability to cover shortages with accumulated surpluses. In such circumstances, Washington and Tehran have virtually no room to maneuver:

• either the parties reach an agreement in June,
• or the planet will be hit by a new wave of fuel crisis that will strike end consumers directly.

Experts also warn against the illusion of surplus, since a significant portion of official stocks is a technological residue needed to maintain pipeline pressure and cannot physically be used to fill planes or cars. Against the backdrop of mounting instability, Saudi Aramco is already preparing a long?term fallback plan, considering a major expansion of export capacity via the Yanbu port on the Red Sea.

This strategic move is intended to drastically reduce the world's largest supplier's dependence on the whims of Hormuz policy. Although higher prices helped the company preserve strong profits in Q1, Nasser warns that the longer the current disruption lasts, the more difficult and prolonged the subsequent rebalancing will be. The market is waiting for June, which will be a moment of truth: either diplomacy restores navigation to its normal course, or the world will enter a protracted shortage phase whose effects will be felt well into next year.

Price storm and scale of rate hikes

April's US inflation data were a cold shower for those hoping for a quick normalization. Year?on?year consumer prices accelerated to 3.8%, the sharpest rise since 2023, and living costs rose 0.6% in a single month. The main drivers were:

• gasoline, which jumped about 5%,
• food, which posted its largest increase in nearly four years.

The statistics were merciless: for the first time in three years, real household incomes began to fall, as wages have not kept pace with surging rents, airfares and hotel prices. Even the "core" inflation measure, excluding volatile energy and food prices, settled at 2.8% year?on?year, confirming that the economy's overheating has deep structural roots.

Against this backdrop, the formal appointment of Kevin Warsh as head of the Federal Reserve looks like preparation for a tough hawkish turn. Where Warsh's and Powell's models once diverged — one seeing inflation closer to 2% and the other nearer 3% — their indicators have now converged around 2.8%. The market reacted immediately to this convergence:

• expectations of rate cuts by year?end have been wiped out,
• the probability of further hikes is now estimated at 35%.

Moreover, lawmakers in Congress are seriously considering a proposal to abolish the Fed's dual mandate, leaving the institution with a single goal — fighting price instability. If Warsh embarks on aggressive balance?sheet reduction, the financial system would face an extremely painful liquidity squeeze. Paradoxically, amid this inflationary fire, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Mike Wilson are radiating remarkable optimism.

They have raised their S&P 500 target to a record 8,300 points, expecting another roughly 12% upside in the near term. Such bold estimates rely on phenomenal corporate results for Q1: corporate earnings surged 27%, more than double analysts' forecasts. For now, the US tech sector and industrial giants are passing rising costs on to consumers, while their European counterparts look to the future with much greater caution. In Europe, experts predict only sideways movement and instability, because the energy noose of the Strait of Hormuz and weakening demand leave Old World companies little room to maneuver.

May 14

14 May, 04:00 / Australia / Rise in consumer inflation expectations in May (leading) / prev.: 5.2% / actual: 5.2% / forecast: 5.9% / AUD/USD – up

In April, consumer inflation expectations in Australia reached the highest level since late 2022, reflecting growing public concern about price pressures. The main short?term factor is higher oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, occurring against the background of tighter central bank policy. Officials warn of stagflation risks and a long road to price stability, given that inflation remains outside the target range. The May report forecasts a significant rise in expectations. Confirmation of the forecast would strengthen the Australian dollar.

14 May, 09:00 / United Kingdom / GDP growth in Q1 / prev.: 1.3% / actual: 1.0% / forecast: 0.8% / GBP/USD – down UK economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in several quarters over the last three months. Despite a recovery in manufacturing, services showed weaker dynamics, and construction activity has almost stalled. There was also a slowdown in government spending, exports and imports, with some increase in gross fixed capital formation. The Q1 report is expected to show further cooling of the economy. If the data confirm the forecast, this will be a signal of weakness for the pound.

14 May, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Industrial production growth in March / prev.: 0.5% / actual: -0.4% / forecast: 0.2% / GBP/USD – up

Industrial production in the UK fell in February, marking the first annual decline in four months. This result fully offset previous positive expectations for sector expansion. In the March report, analysts expect a return to positive dynamics. If the forecast comes true, industrial activity will be seen as recovering, which would strengthen the pound.

14 May, 15:30 / US / Retail sales growth in April / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 1.7% / forecast: 0.35% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

Retail sales in the US surged in March, reaching the fastest growth rate in a year. The main driver was a record jump in revenue at gas stations due to higher fuel prices amid the international conflict. At the same time, consumer spending remained stable across most durable goods categories. Core measures excluding volatile sectors also significantly beat market expectations. The April report is forecast to show a sharp slowdown in retail growth. Confirmation of the forecast would indicate cooling consumer demand and weaken the dollar index.

14 May, 15:30 / US / Export prices growth in April / prev.: 1.9% / actual: 1.6% / forecast: 1.1% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

In March, US export prices rose 1.6% month?on?month, slowing after a sharp jump in February. The main increase was in non?agricultural goods, where higher industrial materials prices offset declines in capital and consumer goods prices. Year?on?year March, showed the strongest dynamic since November 2022. The April report is forecast to show a further slowdown. If actual data confirm the forecast, this will point to easing inflationary pressure in the export sector and push the dollar index lower.

14 May, 15:30 / US / Import prices growth in April / prev.: 0.9% / actual: 0.8% / forecast: 1.0% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

US import prices rose 0.8% month?on?month in March, with a key factor being a large increase in fuel and lubricant costs — the largest in a year. Price rises were also seen in:

• industrial materials
• food
• consumer goods excluding energy

Year?on?year, March's increase was the strongest since late 2024. The April release is expected to show an acceleration in price dynamics. Confirmation of the forecast would signal stronger imported inflation and lead to dollar index strengthening.

14 May, 15:30 / US / Retail sales growth in April (y/y) / prev.: 3.96% / actual: 3.97% / forecast: 3.30% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

Year?on?year retail sales growth in the US for March was 3.97%, remaining below long?term averages recorded over the past three decades. The current dynamic reflects a moderate expansion of consumer activity compared to the extreme peaks and troughs of past years. April is forecast to show a slowdown in the annual pace of retail growth. Realization of the forecast would confirm cooling consumer demand and weaken the dollar index.

14 May, 15:30 / USA / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 190k / actual: 200k / forecast: 205k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US rose to 200,000 in the last week of April, recovering from multi?year lows. At the same time, continuing claims unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in two years, confirming labor market resilience despite reported layoffs at large corporations. The next report is expected to show a further increase in new filings. Confirmation of the forecast would weigh on the dollar index.

May 15

15 May, 01:30 / New Zealand / Business activity index in manufacturing from Business NZ in April / prev.: 54.8 pts / actual: 53.2 pts / forecast: – / NZD/USD – volatile

The Business NZ manufacturing activity index for March stood at 53.2 points, indicating the sector remains in an expansion phase. The indicator reflects current production conditions relative to the previous period. With no clear forecast for April, a significant deviation of the index from March's level will produce high volatility in the New Zealand dollar.

15 May, 02:50 / Japan / Producer inflation (PPI) growth in April / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 3.0% / USD/JPY – down

In March, Japanese producer prices rose 2.6% year?on?year, the fastest acceleration since late last year. Price pressure was strongest in transport equipment and IT sectors, while deflationary forces in steel and petroleum products eased. The April report is forecast to show further strengthening of industrial inflation. Confirmation of the forecast would point to rising production chain costs and strengthen the Japanese yen.

15 May, 15:15 / Canada / Housing starts in April / prev.: 251.0k / actual: 235.9k / forecast: 240.0k / USD/CAD – down

In March, housing starts in Canada fell to 235.9k annualized, the lowest in five months. Declines occurred in both urban and rural areas, with volumes hitting more than a one-year low. The data diverged from market expectations of continued growth. The April report is forecast to show a slight increase in new starts. If actual figures confirm the forecast, it would indicate some stabilization in construction and lead to a weaker US dollar vs the Canadian dollar.

15 May, 15:30 / US / New York State manufacturing business activity index in May (leading) / prev.: -0.2 pts / actual: 11.0 pts / forecast: 7.5 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down

The New York State manufacturing activity index showed a sharp rise in April, reaching the highest level in five months. The improvement was accompanied by:

• increases in new orders and shipments
• employment growth at regional firms
• At the same time, companies noted significant raw material price increases and concerns about future deliveries, which weighed on overall expectations.

Analysts expect activity to slow in May. Confirmation of the forecast would signal a shift to more moderate expansion and weaken the dollar index.

15 May, 16:15 / US / Industrial production in April / prev.: 1.2% / actual: 0.7% / forecast: 0.4% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down US industrial production in March showed the weakest growth since last summer. Positive utility sector dynamics only partly offset:

• weak manufacturing figures
• a decline in mining output

The April report is forecast to show further cooling in industrial activity. If confirmed, this would indicate a weakening of the industrial impulse in the national economy and lead to a decline in the dollar index.

14 May, 02:00 / US / Speech by Dallas Fed President Lori Logan / USDX

14 May, 12:15 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD

14 May, 17:15 / US / Speech by Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid / USDX

14 May, 18:15 / United Kingdom / Speech by Hugh Pilla of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee / GBP/USD

14 May, 15:10 / Eurozone / Speech by Pedro Machado of the ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD

14 May, 20:00 / US / Speech by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack / USDX

15 May, 00:45 / US / Speech by New York Fed President John Williams / USDX

15 May, 02:00 / US / Speech by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr / USDX

Speeches by leading central bank officials are also expected during these days. Their comments typically trigger volatility in the FX market, as they may signal regulators' future rate plans.