18.05.202609:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil Prices Surge Sharply

Oil prices have risen again as President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Iran, demanding a deal that, in his view, would end the prolonged conflict and allow the crucial Strait of Hormuz to reopen.

According to the latest data, the price of Brent crude oil has exceeded $112 per barrel after rising nearly 8% last week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is approaching $108. Yesterday, Trump took to social media, stating that time is running out for Iran and that they better act quickly.

It's worth noting that since the first attacks by the US and Israel on Iran at the end of February, oil prices have risen by more than 50%, as the diminishing flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz limits supplies from Gulf producers. Many economists have repeatedly pointed out that the market is currently in a race against time, as the factors that have restrained price growth due to the war could be at risk if the vital waterway remains closed until June. However, even if the strait is reopened and the war ends, it will take at least six months to restore infrastructure and normalize supplies.

Clearly, there are many headlines regarding potential resolutions, but so far, there is no reliable mechanism in place to completely eliminate the risks associated with supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning the risk premium reflected in high oil prices is likely to remain unchanged.

Additional pressure on supply intensified after the Trump administration allowed the expiration of the exemption for the sale of Russian oil, despite India's request to extend this measure. Over the past weekend, energy facilities in the Persian Gulf were attacked, with a drone strike causing a fire at a nuclear facility in the United Arab Emirates, highlighting the fragility of the ceasefire.

Reports from Iranian semi-official media indicate that both sides of the conflict remain far apart. A member of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet, Ze'ev Elkin, stated that the country is prepared to resume strikes against Iran if Trump makes such a decision. It should be noted that since the ceasefire began on April 8, Trump has repeatedly threatened to resume bombings, which first started on February 28.

From a technical perspective, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $113.80. This would set sights on $118.80, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the area of $124.40. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will try to take control at $106.00. If this is achieved, breaking through the range will deliver a severe blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $100.00, with the potential to slide to $92.50.