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Neither Donald Trump, nor crypto treasuries activity, nor an improved global risk appetite is helping Bitcoin. BTC/USD has fallen to its lowest level since mid?April amid outflows from specialized ETFs, lower crypto market volatility, and selling by recent token buyers.
Donald Trump called on social media for Congress to pass a "Clarity Act" as soon as possible to regulate cryptocurrencies and once again called America the crypto capital of the world. While US stocks respond sharply to the president's messages and the so-called "Trump put," Bitcoin prefers to stay aloof.
Bitcoin volatility dynamics
Volatility has dropped to nine?month lows, reducing investor interest in the digital asset. Previously, high volatility meant BTC/USD was bought quickly — it rose, then was bought again because it had risen. That produced a high correlation with US stock indices, which now no longer exists.
If those old links still held, record S&P 500 highs could have pulled the cryptocurrency out of the abyss. Unfortunately, help from US stocks is no longer to be expected.
BTC/USD plunge is being driven by the longest ever outflow from specialized ETFs. Investors have been withdrawing money for nine trading days, the worst losing streak since these financial instruments launched in January 2024. As a result, May outflows totaled $2.1 billion, the largest since November.
Capital flows into bitcoin ETFs
According to Glassnode, the average buy price of Bitcoin over the past 155 days was $78,000. BTC/USD is currently trading well below that level, and if the decline continues, many bulls may lose patience and begin to liquidate their holdings, triggering an avalanche move to the downside.
It's not clear what straw Bitcoin can cling to. It's not being saved by Donald Trump's support, nor by record highs in US equity indices, nor by investors' faith in de-escalation in the Middle East. Will Congress passing the Clarity Act help? I doubt it — the banking lobby will not allow paying interest on stablecoin holdings, which would strip banks of a significant portion of their funding.
Technically, the daily chart for BTC/USD shows a completed 1-2-3 reversal pattern. Short positions opened from $80,650 and added below $77,500 should be held, with periodic re-entries to add new shorts. Pivot targets for the short trade are $68,200 and $60,000.
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