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Gold (XAU/USD) continues to post solid intraday losses, retreating from the $4,600 level — a two-week high recorded on Friday. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, combined with hawkish expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, is supporting the recovery of the U.S. dollar. This, in turn, remains a key factor weighing on the precious metal, contributing to its decline below the psychologically important $4,500 level.
Nevertheless, gold remains comfortably above the two-month low reached last Thursday, as market participants maintain a cautious stance while awaiting further developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state media on Sunday that communication and exchanges of signals with the United States are continuing, while also urging caution regarding unconfirmed reports about the progress of the negotiations. Earlier, chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emphasized that Tehran would not agree to any deal that fails to fully reflect its national interests. Additional reports indicate that the United States has adopted a tougher position in the talks, increasing uncertainty surrounding diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in the Middle East, which has now lasted for three months. Disagreements over Iran's nuclear program and the status of the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate efforts to reach an agreement. Reports suggest that U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking amendments to the proposed agreement concerning the strategically important maritime corridor and uranium enrichment issues in an effort to end the hostilities. Contacts between the parties continue through Pakistani and other regional intermediaries, although the extent of progress remains unclear.
Meanwhile, Israel is expanding its ground operation in Lebanon against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. According to Reuters, Israeli forces have captured the approximately 900-year-old Beaufort Castle and advanced beyond the Litani River. This marks the deepest advance since Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 and has increased the geopolitical risk premium, supporting demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.
At the same time, recent developments are contributing to a recovery in oil prices after they reached a more than one-month low on Friday.
This has once again intensified inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening. As a result, the U.S. dollar is receiving additional support, while gold remains under pressure.
For better trading opportunities, market participants should pay close attention to upcoming U.S. macroeconomic releases marking the start of the new month. The week begins with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for today. However, the key event will be Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could reshape market expectations regarding the Fed's next policy steps and strengthen short-term demand for the U.S. dollar. At the same time, developments in the Middle East will remain a source of elevated volatility in global markets and continue to influence gold price dynamics.
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According to current data, the U.S. dollar is showing its strongest gains against the New Zealand dollar.
From a technical perspective, gold continues to move lower, trading below both the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Negative oscillator readings support the bearish outlook. Nevertheless, the metal showed resilience near the key 200-day SMA last week, which continues to support the longer-term upward trend. Therefore, before considering a scenario of further declines in gold prices, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break and consolidation below this moving average, currently located at the $4,400 level.
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