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The test of the price level at 1.1654 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.
Yesterday, the dollar rose again as a combination of geopolitical tensions and positive US labor market indicators created a favorable environment for the strengthening of the American currency. The increase in job openings in the US signals the strength of the American labor market and potentially increases consumer activity. This can be interpreted as a hint at the ongoing resilience of the US economy despite external shocks.
The first half of today is expected to be eventful for financial markets, with a number of key macroeconomic data releases from the Eurozone. Investors and analysts will closely watch the May PMI for the services sector. This indicator is one of the most important leading indicators reflecting the state of business activity in the largest sector of the European economy. Along with the services PMI index, the market is also anticipating data on the composite PMI for May. This indicator, which combines data from the manufacturing and services sectors, provides a more comprehensive view of overall business activity in the Eurozone. If the composite index also shows weak results, it could heighten concerns about recovery prospects and further pressure the euro.
In addition, investors will be monitoring the dynamics of the producer price index (PPI) for May. Changes in this indicator can provide insight into inflation trends at the production stage, which, in turn, may influence expectations regarding future monetary policy from the European Central Bank.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1638 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1663. At the level of 1.1663, I intend to exit the market and immediately sell in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point). One can only expect the euro to grow after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1620 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1638 and 1.1663.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1620 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, at which point I intend to exit short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pair will only return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1638 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1620 and 1.1594.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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