29.06.202613:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders – June 29th (US Session)

Trade review and trading tips for the Japanese yen

The price test of 161.88 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Buying the dollar will also be difficult in the second half of the day, as the market is expected to be quiet due to the absence of US economic data. The lack of economic reports will deprive traders of reasons for active action – especially in the USD/JPY pair, which is trading near multi-year highs, suggesting the possibility of intervention from the Bank of Japan at any moment. Therefore, subdued price action for the US dollar is expected in the second half of the day, assuming no unforeseen events occur. Market participants are likely to remain on the sidelines or shift their attention to currency pairs with clearer trading signals.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point is reached around 161.94 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 162.13 (thicker green line on the chart). At 162.13, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move back from the level). Some upward movement is possible today, but it is relatively limited. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 161.84, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 161.94 and 162.13 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 161.84 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 161.68, where I will exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal move). Downward pressure on the pair may return in the event of central bank intervention. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 161.94, while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 161.84 and 161.68 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking point, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or manual profit-taking point, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should take overbought and oversold zones into account

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before important economic reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is, from the outset, a losing intraday trading strategy.