02.07.202606:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on July 2? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Thursday, but almost all are important. It begins with the Eurozone unemployment rate, which the market is unlikely to pay much attention to. Yesterday, a much more significant consumer price index was released in Europe, which significantly reduced the likelihood that the European Central Bank would continue its monetary tightening. However, the market reacted very weakly to this report. Today in the U.S., reports on wages, unemployment, and Non-Farm Payrolls will be published. Certainly, these reports will set the tone for trading and can provoke a market reaction that will be noticeable on the charts.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, the speeches by Buch, Chipollone, and Elderson at the ECB, and by Mann at the Bank of England, stand out. However, just yesterday, speeches were made by Christine Lagarde, Kevin Warsh, and Andrew Bailey, and no new information was provided to traders. The Bank of England expects inflation to slow by 2027, while the Federal Reserve aims to return inflation to 2%, yet Kevin Warsh did not specify how this would be achieved. Christine Lagarde took a cautious stance, and inflation in the EU decreased in June. Therefore, under the current circumstances, only the Fed may be planning to tighten monetary policy, but the market has already factored this potential in.

The geopolitical backdrop remains steadily "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. signed an agreement remotely; however, too many important questions remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear question," the war between Lebanon and Israel, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Theoretically, the market may fear the resumption of full-scale war, but this is clearly insufficient to maintain demand for the dollar. Nonetheless, Tehran and Washington remain on the path to peace, and negotiations are ongoing, though no one expects them to be quick and easy.

General Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to correct after a significant decline, but macroeconomic factors could strongly influence market sentiment today. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1354-1.1363, and the British pound from the area of 1.3259-1.3267. The U.S. dollar has been rising for two consecutive months, which, in our opinion, has not been sufficiently justified.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.