13.07.202608:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Breaks $4050: U.S. Fourth Strike on Iran This Week Hits the Metal Hard

Today, gold has taken a sharp dive, breaking the $4,050 mark per ounce. The renewed geopolitical tension has brought yet another shockwave to the already fragile gold market. The spot price of gold has already fallen by 1.6 percent after a 1.4 percent decline last week. Silver has been hit even harder, dropping by up to 3.1 percent on Monday.

As mentioned earlier, the catalyst was the new escalation of the conflict over the weekend: U.S. forces conducted their fourth round of strikes within the week in response to an attack on a container ship, according to U.S. Central Command. The situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely convoluted. Iran has stated that the waterway will be closed until further notice; however, the U.S. denies this version. Such uncertainty itself increases market nervousness more than definitively bad news, as investors must factor in both scenarios simultaneously.

The logic behind the pressure on gold remains the same and is well known from previous episodes of escalation. For traders, escalating hostilities heighten concerns that the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain high interest rates longer to combat persistent inflation. The minutes from the June Fed meeting already indicated that several committee members saw reasons for raising rates, although they ultimately supported the decision to keep them unchanged. More broadly, the minutes reflected growing concerns among Fed leadership about inflation as worries about the labor market have somewhat receded. Higher borrowing costs are traditionally a headwind for precious metals that do not provide interest.

The technical and currency backdrop further weighs on the metal. The yields on interest-sensitive two-year Treasury bonds have risen to their highest level since February 2025, and the dollar index has increased, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for most buyers.

The scale of the changes in gold since the start of the war serves as a significant reminder of the depth of the correction. Since the end of February, the metal has fallen by more than a fifth, and the wave of profit-taking has ended a three-year bullish cycle, recently briefly driving gold below $4,000 for the first time since November. The current pressure brings this threat back onto the agenda.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,062. This will allow for targeting $4,124, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The most distant target will be around $4,186. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of $4,008. If they succeed, a breakout from this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $3,954, with the potential to reach $3,914.