2018.04.1222:36:00UTC+00Global Trade Growth Strong but at Risk if Dispute Escalates - WTO

World trade in goods is maintaining a strong recovery, but it still might falter if trade tensions escalated further, according to the annual forecast of the World Trade Organization.

Trade in goods will grow 4.4 percent this year after a decade averaging 3.0 percent a year following the financial crisis. Global trade growth expanded by 4.7 percent in 2017 – much higher than the 3.6 percent estimated in September – and a further 4.0 percent rise is expected in 2019, the WTO said.

Heightened tensions between the U.S. and China could hurt a global trade expansion that's already expected to be lower this year than in 2017, the WTO said.

The United States and China have threatened each other with tens of billions of dollars' worth of tariffs in recent weeks, leading to worries that Washington and Beijing may engage in a full-scale trade war that could damage global growth and roil markets.

The Geneva-based body cautioned that there are signs a looming global standoff is already affecting business confidence and investment decisions, possibly jeopardizing the projected growth.

The WTO's 2018 forecast puts world trade growth at the top end of previous expectations, since the organization said last September that it expected 2018 expansion of 1.4 to 4.4 percent, most likely around 3.2 percent.

The latest forecast raises that to 3.1 to 5.5 percent based on current GDP forecasts, but “a continued escalation of trade restrictive policies could lead to a significantly lower figure,” the WTO said.