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Source - Federal Reserve
Quotes from Capital Economics:
- With industrial production rising by 0.7% m/m in March (consensus +0.5%), the US economy is now showing its true colours after the weakness triggered by the bleakest of winters. There is scope for production to rise rapidly in the coming months too.
- Both mining (1.5% m/m) and utilities output (1.0% m/m) recorded strong gains last month. But since manufacturing output accounts for 75% of total production, the 0.5% m/m rise in this sector in March was more important. This was just shy of the 0.6% m/m increase expected by the consensus, but the 0.9% m/m gain in February was revised up to a 1.4% rise.
- Admittedly, the gain in past two months followed a 0.9% m/m drop in January, when the bad weather prevented some workers from getting to the factories. So the subsequent rebound just gets output back to where it would have been had the weather been no worse than normal.
- Looking ahead, though, the survey evidence suggests that the 3m/3m annualised growth rate will soon accelerate from just below 2% in March to around 5%. One risk is that a slowdown in China will prevent this. But as China buys hardly any of the products or materials its been using to construct roads and buildings from America, we're not too concerned.
