2017.09.2601:16:00UTC+00ADB Sees Robust Growth In Developing Asia

The Asian Development Bank on Tuesday upgraded its developing Asia's growth outlook citing broad-based recovery in global trade and strong expansion in industrial economies.

In an update to its annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook 2017, the lender said developing Asia will grow 5.9 percent in 2017 and 5.8 percent in 2018.

The figures were unchanged from its July estimates but showed revisions from its ADO report released in April. The ADB had initially forecast 5.7 percent growth for both 2017 and 2018.

"Growth prospects for developing Asia are looking up, bolstered by a revival in world trade and strong momentum in the PRC," ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada, said.

According to ADB, China's growth exceeded expectations in the first half of 2017 driven by expansionary fiscal policy and unanticipated external demand.

China's growth projection for 2017 was lifted to 6.7 percent from 6.5 percent. Growth was forecast to slow to 6.4 percent as measures to cut industrial overcapacity and reduce financial risks kick in.

Industrial economies' growth will reach 2 percent in 2017 and 2018, up by 0.1 percentage points from the April 2017 forecast, the Manila-based lender said.

Although demonetization and implementation of the new goods and services tax regime have dented consumer spending and business investment, ADB said India continues its strong showing.

India's GDP growth outlook was downgraded to 7 percent in FY2017, a 0.4 percentage point drop from the April forecast. Likewise, the forecast for FY2018 was adjusted down to 7.4 percent from 7.6 percent.

Meanwhile, Southeast Asia was expected to grow stronger as output accelerates steadily to 5.1 percent in 2018 from 5 percent in 2017. The figures were revised from 5 percent and 4.8 percent respectively.

Growth forecasts for Central Asia were revised up this year and next amid stable oil prices, improving prospects for the Russian Federation, and rising remittances.

Further, ADB observed that risks to the region have become more balanced.

Loose fiscal policy in the US and lower oil prices were potential upside risks to the region, while downside risks include tighter global liquidity, economic disruption from a geopolitical event, or a weather-related disaster.