2013.07.0806:17:27UTC+00Alcoa is Monday’s stock to pay attention

Alcoa Inc., the world’s biggest aluminum maker by revenue, is scheduled to report quarterly results on Monday, indicating the unofficial start of second-quarter profits season.

Analysts forecast Alcoa to acquire 6 cents a share in its second quarter, according to a consensus survey by FactSet. Revenue is forecasted to total $5.85 billion.

The industrial bellwether earned 6 cents a share on revenue of $5.96 billion in the year-earlier period.

Alcoa’s stock has been under pressure in recent weeks after its debt rating was downgraded to junk by Moody’s Investors Service. On May 29, Moody’s cut Alcoa by one notch to Ba1 from Baa3 with a stable outlook.

The ratings agency cited weaker aluminum demand on slower growth in China and a recession in Europe for the move.

Earlier in the week, the stock was cut to neutral from overweight with price target of $9 at J.P. Morgan.

“Alcoa has clearly taken steps to lower its costs in its upstream segments and to grow its downstream businesses. However, we believe these efforts will be largely overshadowed by a persistently weak aluminum price environment, which should weigh on AA’s earnings and stock price,” Michael Gambardella, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, said in a report.

Aldo Mazzaferro at Macquarie Research on Wednesday also lowered his outlook on Alcoa’s second-quarter earnings to 7 cents a share from 11 cents.

“Overcapacity issues, high LME inventories and continuing weak price trends for aluminum all concern us about AA’s future earnings prospects,” said Mazzaferro in a note.

Alcoa closed up 1.3% on Friday but is decreased with 10% year to date.