20.02.201815:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 20/02/2018

The German ZEW index data release gave a mixed picture. The current assessment was worse than expected (92.3 points vs. 93.9 points), however, the expectations assessment was better (17.8 points vs.16 points), which is considered a more important component.

The details of the report said that the eurozone's and Germany's inflation expectations have started to rise finally and the economy is showing a strong level of performance. Moreover, the German economy should improve even more in next 6 months, so investors do not seem to think that the falls in ZEW have seriously affected the outlook. The biggest problem seems to be the EUR strength and a slowdown in China.

Every month, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) questions financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany's economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time and easy to understand and interpret.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the lower channel line at the level of 1.2370 and currently is testing the technical support at the level of 1.2333. This is a quite strong support zone between the levels of 1.2333 - 1.2295, but if the momentum indicator drops below its fifty level, then the zone will be broken and the price will move towards the recent low at the level of 1.2212.