17.07.201808:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 17/07/2018

The Bank of Australia published a summary of the July meeting. The report has a neutral tone, though, according to many analysts, it is slightly more hawkish than expected after the last decision of the Bank.

From the report published by the Reserve Bank of Australia, we did get any breakthrough, but rather some form of clarifying what we already know. Board agreed that the next interest rate move would rather be upward as long as the economy improved as expected. For the time being, the Management Board of the Bank sees no grounds for changing the monetary policy in the nearest future.

Forecasts for the job market are positive, the number of new jobs is increasing. The latest data confirm forecasts about GDP growth by over 3.0% in 2018 and 2019. The Australian dollar is currently slightly weaker, but it is still within the range from the last two years. RBA noted that the increase in household income has slowed down in the past few years. The institution is worried about the financial stability of households, "they want to watch them closely".

Forecasts are still talking about rate hikes only in 2020. Australian dollar reacted to slightly hawkish minutes by strengthening up to the level of 0.7432.

Let's then take a closer look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Despite the recent spike higher, the price is still closed in a range between the levels of 0.7359 - 0.7445 and the last one is not even a swing high. The momentum is barely moving away to the north from its fifty level, so not much of strength is noticed there as well. The key technical resistance is still seen at the level of 0.7475 - 0.7483 and only a sustained break through this level would change the current bias from neutral to bullish.