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06.07.201015:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, July 6, 2010

Long-term review

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According to wave count this currency pair is now developing wave 5 of the intermediate downtrend (colored magenta on the chart). Wave 5 and the whole downtrend from 0.8861 will end in case 0.8512 is exceeded, since this level is the base of wave 5.

The nearest resistances are Fibonacci retracement points of 0.8512-0.8314 and 0.8861-0.8314:

- 0.8465 = .764 retracement
- 0.8523 = .382 retracement
- 0.8588 = .50 retracement

In case the price keeps declining the targets remain the same:

- 0.8254 = .764 ret
- 0.8228 = contracted objective point (COP)

Overbought/Oversold

The Detrended Oscillator is highly overbought. This either means a good opportunity to short the market against the nearest Fibonacci level, or this strong wave is a sign of reversal. To initiate a short position it's better to wait for a topping signal.

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