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15.10.201812:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for October 15, 2018

Long-term review

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EUR/USD is currently quite impulsive with the bullish gains after impulsive bearish pressure recently from 1.1600 area with a daily close. While USD is struggling amid worse-than-expected economic reports, EUR gained momentum without any macroeconomic data today.

After the downbeat CPI report published last week which decreased to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%, USD managed to gain certain momentum against EUR but failed to sustain its strength. Today US Core Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3% and Retail Sales report is expected to increase to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.1%. Additionally, US Empire Estate Manufacturing Index is expected to increase to 20.4 from the previous figure of 19.0 and Business Inventories are expected to decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%.

On the EUR side, the economic calendar of the eurozone is empty today. However, this week the eurozone's Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 15.0B from the previous figure of 12.8B, Final CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.1% and EU Economic Summit is going to be held which is expected to encourage further EUR gains this week.

Meanwhile, USD is more optimistic and hawkish in nature than EUR. Ahead of the US Retail Sales reports later today, EUR is quite impulsive with the gains. If USD trades better-than-expected today, further bearish pressure with definite trend momentum is expected in this pair throughout this week.

Now let us look at the technical view. Currently the price is quite impulsive with the bullish gains whereas the trend is still bearish. Though certain volatility may be observed in this pair but as the price remains below 1.1600-50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue with an intention to push lower towards 1.15 and later towards 1.13 support area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1.1300, 1.1500

RESISTANCE: 1.1600-50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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