19.11.201815:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for November 19, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive amid the bullish pressure recently which lead the price to reside at the edge of 1.1430-1.1500 resistance area. EUR is able to gain momentum over USD despite the Italian budget jitters while FED's dovish sentiment knocks dollar down.

Recently ECB President Draghi's speech was quite optimistic and positive which provided some insights into the economic development in the recent 5 years. It made a great impact on the EUR gains. Today the eurozone's Current Account report was published with a decrease to 16.9B from the previous figure of 24.3B which was expected to be at 24.2B. Moreover, throughout the day the Eurogroup meeting is being held. Germany's Buba Monthly Report was released. Its positive sentiment provided the room for the buyer to sustain the momentum in EUR. Ahead of ECB Monetary Policy Meeting minutes, EUR is likely to assert its strength.

On the other hand, due to uncertainty of another rate hike this year, USD is losing momentum over EUR. Despite the positive CPI and Retail Sales reports, USD is struggling for gains over EUR that indicates the weakness of the American currency in the process. The dollar was hurt by the dovish comment of FED Vice Chair Richard Clarida who spoke about a slowdown in the global growth which signals the Fed's hesitation about a steady pace of monetary tightening. Today US NAHB Housing Market Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 67 from the previous figure of 68. FOMC Member Williams is going to speak. His speech is expected to be quite neutral with the modest impact on the currency. Moreover, tomorrow US Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.26M from the previous figure of 1.24M and Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.23M from the previous figure of 1.20M.

Meanwhile, EUR is quite optimistic on the back of the political developments despite the recent worse economic reports and Italy's budget issue. On the other hand, USD is currently weakening amid expectations of the upcoming events, especially the Fed's policy meeting. If the eurozone manages to provide upbeat economic reports, it will secure further gains on the EUR side.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently pushing higher with impulsive momentum towards 1.1500 area from where it is expected to have a bearish counter-move, making the price follow the trend in the future. As the price remains below 1.1500 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 1.1200-1.1300 support area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1.1200, 1.1300

RESISTANCE: 1.1430, 1.1500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE