19.12.201814:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 19, 2018

Long-term review

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AUD/USD has been quite volatile and corrective at the edge of the 0.7200 area, from where it is expected to push lower in the coming days. Ahead of the Federal Funds Rate report and data on the FOMC events today, USD is expected to gain momentum over AUD in the process.

Today, the US Federal Reserve is expected to increase its interest rate to 2.50% from the previous value of 2.25% which is anticipated to result in certain gain on the USD side. Though today's rate hike is imminent, but the number of rate hikes in 2019 may be less than expected, which signals certain tightening of the monetary policy due to heightened concerns about the recession. Moreover, today, the US Current Account report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -125B from the previous figure of -101B; the Existing Home Sales rate is estimated to decrease to 5.20M from the previous figure of 5.22M; and Crude Oil Inventories is also expected to decrease to -2.7M from the previous figure of -1.2M.

On the other hand, AUD has been struggling with the recent economic reports which has already led the currency to lose certain grounds in the process. Tomorrow, the AUD Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 20.0k from the previous figure of 32.8k, while Unemployment Rate is estimated to be unchanged at 5.0%.

As for the current scenario, the AUD economic reports to be published are expected to be dovish, whereas USD, having higher probability of the rate hike today, is expected to lead to certain gains on the bearish side in this pair. Certain volatility may be observed in the pair, but as per current fundamental aspects, it is likely that USD will put pressure on AUD in the coming days.

Now let us consider from the technical point of view. The price has been residing inside the bearish daily Mother Bar candle since the starting of the week, while residing below the important price area of 0.7200. The price has recently rejected off the 0.7200 area and is pushing lower quite impulsively, which is expected to lead to the 0.7050 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below the 0.7300 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is anticipated to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.7000-50

RESISTANCE: 0.7200, 0.7300

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE and CORRECTIVE

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