21.02.201913:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for February 21, 2019

BREXIT being still uncertain is leading to indecision between the traders worldwide whereas the UK economy is currently being questioned. A Deal Brexit or No Deal Brexit will have different impact on the overall UK economy as well as global economy.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is currently looking forward to find a way out of Brexit impasse and mounting evidence that an agreement is within reach. Though recent meeting between May and European Commission President Juncker had a joint statement about the meeting being constructive but not such confidence is yet seen in the markets. The optimism did manage to push GBP higher than USD in the process but sustaining it further with a long-term view is still very much uncertain. Recently, Fitch stated that a No Deal Brexit is going to disrupt UK economic and trade prospect which may lead to a great downfall of the economy in no time.

Today UK Public Sector Net Borrowing report was published with positive outcome of decrease to -15.8B from the previous figure of 2.1B which was expected to be at -11.1B. Though Average Earning Index was recently published unchanged at 3.4% which was expected to increase to 3.5% and Claimant Count Change report was published with decrease to 14.2k from the previous figure of 20.2k which could not meet the expected figure of 12.3k did not quite affect the overall gains of the GBP in the process.

On the USD side, according to the minutes of the January policy meeting, the Fed advocates for a patient approach to rate hikes and also flags the end of balance sheet runoff. During the meeting, the policymakers did not express any commitments. As a result, the market is hesitant about trading preferences that makes USD/JPY trade without a clear-cut trend. According to San Francisco FED President Mary Daly, the US economy is facing headwinds. In this context, the Federal Reserve should align its balance sheet policy with the unchanged approach to interest rates. Higher downward pressure, including a slowdown in the global economy, tighter financial conditions, and rising uncertainty over international trade, assures the US central bank to keep rates steady this year.

Today US Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published. Durable goods orders ex transportation are likely to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.4%, Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase to 1.6% from the previous value of 0.7%. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to decrease to 14.1 from the previous figure of 17.0 and Unemployment Claims are expected to decrease to 228k from the previous figure of 239k.

At present, the fate of GBP is still very much uncertain whereas USD outlook is quite stable and more favorable. Though certain weak economic reports on the USD have been published recently, market sentiment on GBP is uncertain ahead of BREXIT. Meanhwile, investors are betting on USD strength in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price recently was quite indecisive while residing above 1.30 area with a daily close that will reinforce bearish pressure before the price climbs higher towards 1.3200-1.3350 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.30 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.