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EUR/USD has decreased a little today because the USD was boosted by the USDX's bounce back. When the US dollar index increases, EUR/USD drops because we have a strong negative correlation between these trading instruments.
The pair has increased as much as 1.1146 on Friday as the Dollar Index has resumed the downside movement. The dollar has depreciated versus the major currencies as the US economy was hit by the COVID-19 effects and not because the EUR, JPY, GBP, etc are strong these days and in the actual situation.
EUR/USD was almost to reach the 61.8% retracement level, but the sellers have dragged it back to 50% level, a valid breakdown below it will signal a potential decrease towards the inside sliding line (SL) of the orange ascending pitchfork. However, a rejection or a 50% retest, false breakdown, will confirm a further increase, the next targets are seen at 61.8%, 1.1200 - 1.1215 area and at the median line (ML) of the ascending pitchfork.
The pair is still bullish on the short term, despite the current minor decrease, a significant upside movement was validated after the price has managed to breakout above the inside sliding line (SL - ascending dotted line). EUR/USD has retested the 38.2% level and the weekly Pivot Point (1.0972) level, so a further increase is expected.
The current minor drop is somehow natural after the price has made another higher high, the decrease could give us a chance to go long as well if the price stabilizes above the 50% retracement level.
EUR/USD is bullish at this moment, a rejection from the 50% retracement level will confirm a further increase, the next target is seen at the 61.8% level. The 1.1200 - 1.1215 area represents a very strong static upside obstacle, but the pair could be attracted by the median line (ML) of the orange ascending pitchfork as the breakout above the inside sliding line (SL) was confirmed. The weekly R1 (1.1309) level represents an important resistance as well.
I believe that we'll have a bullish bias as long as the price stays above the inside sliding parallel line (SL), only a drop below this dynamic support will invalidate a further increase. The median line (ML) of the orange pitchfork acts as a magnet and it could attract the price, so a jump above 1.1200 - 1.1215 is favored because the price has confirmed this pitchfork with several false breakdowns with a great separation below the lower median line (LML).
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