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On Wednesday, the following strong calendar news comes out:
- 8.30 London time. GBP, average wage level taking into account bonuses (Oct.). The expected value is 2.5% compared to the previous value 2.2%;
- 8.30 London time. GBP, change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (Nov.). The expected value is 3.2K, compared to the previous value of 1.1K;
- 12.30 London time. USD, basic consumer price index (CPI) (m / m) (Nov). The expected value is 0.2%, compared to the previous value of 0.2%;
- 12.30 London time. USD, crude oil reserves. The expected value is -3.759M, compared to the previous value is -5.610M;
- prev. USD, speech by US President Trump;
- 18.00 London time. USD, economic forecasts of FOMC;
- 18.00 London time. USD, FOMC statement;
- 18.00 London time. USD, the decision on the interest rate of the Fe. The expected value is 1.5%, compared to the previous value of 1.25%;
- 18.00 London time. USD, FOMC press conference.
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Tuesday, the price moved down and reached the support line (white solid line). A lateral movement is possible upward as the market anticipates a strong news on Wednesday to (18.00 London time) and up to this time. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) moved down, and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type.
Stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the daily chart gives an upward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of RSI indicators (Figure 2).
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
At the last day's closed candle.
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (5) gives an upward trend.
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (8) gives an upward trend.
Result: the system of RSI indicators gives an upward trend.
The calculation of the CCI indicator gives an upward trend.
The bottom line: the CCI indicator system gives an upward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have an upward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up (blue dotted line);
- volumes are neutral;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - up.
General conclusion.
Before the news (18.00 London time) on Wednesday, it is possible to move upward with the first goal of 1.1776 and the recessionary level of 23.6%.
GBP / USD pair
On Tuesday, the market moved down. Before the news on Wednesday, it is possible to move up. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend.
The grand total: the MACD indicator on the daily chart gives a downward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved down which is above the 13th EMA midline (yellow) - the signal of the top trend.
21, the middle EMA line, moving down, which is below the 13th EMA midline, amplifying the signals of the upper channel.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% up;
the MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down;
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% down.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- volumes - upwards;
- candlestick analysis - up;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion:
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair is possible to move upwards with the target of 1.3342 because of news at 18.00 London time.
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