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EUR / USD, GBP / USD.
The main topic on Thursday's discussion was the issue about the ongoing US budget financing until the adoption of the major long-term plan to raise the public debt ceiling. There was a slight correction in the stock market (S & P500 -0.16%) against the backdrop of fixing profits and safety in case of a political failure. This morning (at US time at midnight), the House of Representatives passed this bill. The adoption of the Senate and the signature of the president continued. Emergency financing will be extended until February 16.
The main economic indicators were in the US. The largest interest was caused by the initial application's data for unemployment benefits which accumulated 220 thousand applications were filed against expectations of 250 thousand, this is the lowest value since 1970. The greatest disappointment was caused by the bookmarks for new houses data, showing the December estimate decreased from 1.30 million YoY to 1.19 million YoY, versus the forecast of 1.28 million. But the number of issued permits for the construction of new houses remained at the previous level of 1.30 million against the declining forecast to 1.29 million, which predicts the timing of the decline in bookmarks data. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia for the current month fell from 26.2 to 22.2, while expecting a smaller decline to 24.9 points.
Today, the euro area's balance of payments for November is projected to increase from 30.8 billion to 31.3 billion euros. UK Retail sales in December are expected to decrease by 0.6% -0.8% after the previous growth of 1.1%. Estimates of annual rates are more optimistic, as the volume of basic sales (excluding transport) is expected to increase from 1.5% YoY to 3.0% YoY, while the total sales volume is also expected to grow to 3.0% YoY from 1.6% YoY in November.We are expecting for the final adoption in the US on the law of extending the temporary financing and expect for the growth of the euro to 1.2365 and further to 1.2520, while the growth of the British pound in the range of 1.4045 / 75.
AUD / USD.
On Thursday, Chinese economic indicators came out better than pessimistic expectations. The GDP for the fourth quarter grew by 6.8% compared with the previous period, and contrary to the expected slowdown of 6.7%. Fixed assets Investments in November also did not reduce the volumes with the current 7.2% YoY against the same indicator in October, with the forecast of 7.1% YoY. Industrial production for November added 6.2% YoY against the forecast of 6.1% YoY. Retail sales in November still failed to beat the October plank of 10.2% YoY and fell to 9.4% YoY, the forecast was 10.1% YoY.
The Australian economy proved to have a good data. In December, there were 34.7 thousand new jobs created with a total of 9.0 thousand expected. The previous figure of 61.6 thousand was revised upwards to 63.6 thousand. The economically active population increased from 65.5% (revised from 65.1%) to 65.7%. For this reason, the unemployment rate is formally increased from 5.4% to 5.5%. The quality of employment has improved, as full-time jobs mainly increased. As a result, the Australian dollar confidently added 29 points.
On Thursday, the raw materials sector grew in almost all major sectors. Iron ore added 0.5%. Today, we are expecting for the growth of the "Australian" dollar following the European currencies. The target for the next few days is the area of 0.8150.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
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