25.01.201810:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Mario Draghi will determine the further course of the euro

Today, all the attention of the traders and investors will be concentrated on the decision of the European Central Bank on interest rates, as well as on the speech of ECB President, Mario Draghi.

If there are hints of a reduction or a complete rejection of the quantitative easing program in early autumn of this year, the European currency can continue its growth against the U.S. dollar with new strength, which will easily update the next annual highs.

Pressure on the US dollar yesterday afternoon resulted in a weak fundamental data.

According to the report of the National Association of Realtors, sales in the secondary U.S. housing market fell in December last year, which is due to the fast-growing prices and limited supply.

Thus, sales in the secondary housing market in December fell by 3.6% compared to the previous month, amounting to 5.57 million. Economists expect that sales will fall by 2.2%. For the whole 2017, sales increased by 1.1% to 5.51 homes per year compared in 2016.

Data from IHS Markit also adversely affected the U.S. dollar. According to the report, the composite index of supply managers in January 2018 dropped to a level of 53.8 points against 54.1 points in December. Let me remind you that the values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

The index for the sector fell to 53.3 points against 53.7 points a month earlier. On the contrary, the production index rose to 55.5 points against 55.1 points.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the further upward movement, as I noted above, will entirely depend on the investor sentiment after the meeting of the European Central Bank. Only a break above 1.2490 will allow the formation a new major upward position in risky assets, which will lead to further growth and renewal of already highs such as 1.2530 and 1.2570. In case of investors disappointed from ECB statements, euro purchases can be sought after correction in the support area of 1.2330 and 1.2260, where large players will return to the market again.

Oil quotes have made their way to the next annual highs after the data on commercial inventories in the U.S. yesterday, which declined during the reporting week.

According to the report of the Energy Information Administration from the US Department of Energy, oil reserves fell by 1.1 million barrels to 411.6 million barrels for the week from January 13 to January 19. Economists expected a decline in inventories of 1.9 million barrels. Gasoline stocks increased by 3.1 million barrels to 244 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 639,000 barrels to 139.8 million barrels.