05.02.201808:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The trend will continue if batteries were replaced

EUR / USD, GBP / USD.

The US employment was released on Friday last week, as risky correlations on the market stopped. It lasted just for a month since the beginning of January. Possibly, the exact periodicity may or may not be true, but it is gained attraction. Symbolically, this happened during the course of the Fed's Chair. Janet Yellen had the left of the Central Bank, and Jerome Powell is sworn in today. But we will not rush towards some conclusions about the trend reversal for this could possibly a correction only.

Apart from the US agricultural sector, there were 200,000 jobs created in January against the forecast of 181,000. The December data were upwardly revised from 148,000 to 160,000. The average hourly wage rose by 0.3% in the month, with the expectations of 0.2% -0.3%. The percentage of the economically active population is at the level of 62.7%, while the unemployment rate is also at the previous level of 4.1%. There were other optimistic data, such as the industrial orders for December, increased by 1.7% against the expectations of 1.5%. The final estimate of consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for January also increased from 94.4 to 95.7.

In Europe, the data came out weaker than expected. The December producer price index of the eurozone grew by 0.2% against expectations of 0.3%, and the British Construction PMI for January fell from 52.2 to 50.2. It is not surprising that the interest in investors' risk disappeared during the divergence of US indicators.

At the end of January, it is noted that the recovery of the United States towards the policy of a strong dollar could occur prior to Jerome Powell's entry into the office. It is unlikely that the new Fed chair will "resolutely deploy" the dollar. But they will not interfere if the markets themselves prepare for such a reversal. An external sign for such preparation is the reduction in all types of market assets, including agricultural goods. Investors withdraw funds into the dollar cache, which is obviously a preparation for a tighter investment as a risk aversion.

Today, the macroeconomic indicators of Europe and the US diverge again in favor of the dollar. Retail sales in the euro area are projected to decline by 1.1%, and the final estimate for the Services. PMI in January is expected to remain unchanged at 57.6 points. In the UK, Services PMI can show a decline from 54.2 to 54.1. At 4:00 PM London time, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech about the resolution of the European Parliament on the ECB's report for 2016. The prospects for the ECB will not be given due consideration.

In the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI of the same month is projected to grow from 55.9 to 56.5, while the final assessment for business activity from the company Markit is expected to be unchanged by 53.3 points.

We are expecting for the deepening of the correction. The euro will move further to 1.2295, and the pound sterling is in the range of 1.3980-1.4000.

USD / JPY.

On Friday, investors were able to make a good reserve for the growth of the USD / JPY pair. If the total strengthening of the dollar, the Japanese yen will have good conditions for continuing its growth. However, it was restrained by the weakening of the stock market. Today, Nikkei225 decline to 2.64% (!), S & P / ASX200 is down 1.77%, and China A50 is losing 0.60%. This is mainly because of the December drop in the US market by 2.12% (S & P500), which is the largest daily decline since December 2008. The strength indicator of the yen is its own stability, while the decrease in the Asian session is only 22 points. Supports for the Asian market were released today, and the business activity index in China's services sector for the month of January shows some growth from 53.9 to 54.7 against the expectation of a decline to 53.6.

As a matter of fact, the American stock market does not experience any fears. Quarterly reports of companies, in general, came out positive, while investors are waiting for stronger indicators. After the market dropped to the levels of the first decade of January, it is quite possible to expect a resumption of growth. Before the rate increase in March (probability 76%) which is only more than six weeks. We are looking forward to the growth of the yen to 110.50 and further to 111.00.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.