13.02.201808:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The risks of continuing the decline of stock markets have not disappeared

The US dollar began a new week with a weakening against the major currencies. This occurs against the backdrop of an increase in demand for risk, accompanied by an increase in the share price of companies.

Earlier, the dollar received substantial support due to the near-panic sentiment in the markets, caused by the growing expectations that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, and on concerns of the inflation of financial bubbles. Regarding the events, markets recalled what happened after the legendary head of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan left, happened when Janet Yellen's stepped down. Greenspan had even frankly stated on the Bloomberg channel that he sees two financial bubbles - in the market of stocks and bonds. Then the markets woke up and correction began. But now everything seems to be returning to normal.

Investors continue to ignore the growth in the yield of government bonds of the US Treasury. The profitability of the benchmark of 10-year-old Treasuries is still "hanging" under the local high at a psychologically significant level of 3.0%, the intersection of which will be unambiguously perceived as a certain crossroad, the intersection of which will make the demand for profitability attractive, and not earnings for exchange rate differences. This will lead to increased demand for the dollar and, as a consequence, to its growth in the currency markets. Recall that now at the time of writing, the yield of 10-year government securities is at 2.848%.

So what is holding investors back and making them buy shares of companies, despite the risks? First of all, it is the hope that inflation in the US will not show active growth, the second is that on this background the Fed will continue to slowly raise rates, which, in conjunction with the presence of still high volumes of liquidity in the market, allows for a good profit. But if suddenly inflation increases, and there are prerequisites for this - a strong growth of wages for the last 8.5 years, the continuation of positive dynamics in the labor market against the backdrop of economic growth - we will witness not only a continuation of a smooth correction, but an increase in the fall of stock indices with a simultaneous increase dollar exchange rate.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair has overcome the level of 1.2280, which opens the way for local growth to 1.2365 on the wave of demand for risky assets and the weakening of the dollar before the publication of data on consumer inflation in the US on Thursday .

The AUDUSD pair also gets support against the background of the above reasons. Given this, it can increase to 0.7900-10.