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EUR / USD, GBP / USD
On Tuesday, the events developed according to the plan of the gradual strengthening of interests rate risk. The main stock index of the S & P500 grew by 0.25%, along with the increase of the single point. The base CPI in January increased from 2.5% YoY to 2.7% YoY, and the total CPI remained at the same level of 3.0% YoY against the decline forecast to 2.9% YoY. Retail prices in the UK fell slightly to 4.0% YoY from 4.1% YoY, but housing prices rose from 5.0% YoY to 5.2% YoY with expectations for a decline to 4.9% YoY. A restraining factor for the growth of the British currency was the concerns regarding the Brexit transition period, which according to the EU negotiator Michel Barnier is not yet "given."
The preliminary estimates of the eurozone's GDP data for the 4th quarter will be released today. In Germany, the expected figure is 0.6% compared to 0.8% in the third quarter, while in Italy showed 0.4% at the level of the previous period, and the entire euro area. Eurozone Industrial production for December show growth of only 0.1%, but the November growth of 1.0% smoothes the current expectation.
In the United States, retail sales will come out in January with a forecast of 0.2%. Basic retail sales, excluding motor vehicles, are expected to grow by 0.5%. Also, the important figures of for US consumer prices for the month of January will be released. The basic CPI is projected to increase by 0.2%, with a total of 0.3% against 0.1% in December. Company inventories are expected to increase by 0.3% in December. Today, the United States is scheduled to put a final point on the budget adoption in the White House. But even if there are new disagreements in the Congress (the Democrats do not agree to increase military spending due to cut down on Obama Care). The euro is expected to rise to 1.2520, and the British pound to rise to 1.3980-1.4000 and further to 1.4150.
AUD / USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar did not show strong desire to move after the counter dollar currencies, but today's growth in the Asian session was 30 points compensated for the delay. The sentiment index of Australia's business circles from NAB for January showed growth of 10 to 12 points, and the business mood of WestPac for February has lost 2.3% against growth by 1.8% in January. However, commodities are growing and supporting the Australian currency. Iron ore increased by more than 1.5% , copper to 2.3%, and oil by 0.2%.
The New Zealand dollar was found 50 points after the inflation forecast was published by the National Bank of Russia. At a two-year horizon, the Central Bank sees the index at 2.1% against the current 2.0%. The Australian market saw a fall in the shares of the Fletcher Building, a company in the production of building materials, a decline of 11% and a network of pizzerias. Domino Pizza by 8.3%. Also, the Japanese Nikkei225 is losing 0.83%. The Australian S & P / ASX200 is down 0.20%. We are expecting the growth of the " Australian" dollar to 0.7945.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
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