05.03.201813:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Weekly review of the GBP / USD from 03/05/2018

The pound began to lose its positions with new strength, and in many respects, it is the fault of British statistics. The state of the real estate market is one of the main criteria for the investment attractiveness of the UK, and housing prices - the main indicator of this very state. So, the growth rates of housing prices slowed from 3.2% to 2.2%, so investors had little to rejoice at. Although the index of business activity in the construction sector increased from 50.2 to 51.4. A little pleased with the data on approved applications for mortgages, the number of which has grown from 61,692 to 67,478. But this is not yet granted loans. Also, consumer lending amounted to 1.4 billion pounds against 1.6 billion pounds in the previous month.

However, the US statistics did not shine either. Sales of new homes decreased by 7.8%, and orders for durable goods by 3.7%. Also, personal incomes grew by 0.4%, and expenses by 0.2%. And while revenue growth is good, but when they grow stronger than spending in a few months, it indicates a steady decline in consumer activity. As a result, orders and sales are decreasing, and if stocks are also growing, then this is already smothered by a crisis of overproduction. So, according to preliminary data, warehouse stocks in warehouses of wholesale trade increased by 0.7%. The only thing that did not allow the dollar to lose its positions is the second GDP estimate for the fourth quarter, which showed an acceleration in economic growth from 2.3% to 2.5%. And the risks of the crisis of overproduction are only risks.

This week, the UK publishes only data on industrial production, whose zero growth should be replaced by a growth of 1.8%. Thus, the pound will depend on US statistics, and the main event will be the publication of the report of the Ministry of Labor on the state of the labor market. The unemployment rate itself may drop from 4.1% to 4.0%, but this will be due to a decrease in the proportion of the workforce in the total population, from 62.7% to 62.5%. It is also expected that the average hourly wage growth rate will slow from 2.9% to 2.8%, which will be partially offset by an increase in the average length of the working week from 34.3 hours to 34.4 hours. Thus, data on the number of new jobs created outside agriculture are gaining immense significance and it is expected that there will be 200 thousand as many as the month before. The very number is quite impressive, so the market reaction will be positive. But there will be no negative, since production orders should be reduced by 1.3%, and the ADP report can show the growth of employment in the private sector by 195 thousand against 234 thousand in the previous month.

All indications are that by the end of the week the pound / dollar pair will fall to 1.3700.