17.04.201800:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The West's attack on Syria brought the world closer to a global war

The currency market last week was influenced by the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East around Syria. Investors expected the promised missile strike from the United States, Britain and France. This strike was carried out on Saturday, but it turned out, according to the Syrian authorities and the Russian military department, is far from successful, since most missiles were beaten down by the air defense of Syria, and those that fell caused minimal damage. After that, all attention was focused on the Russian Federation's response. Russia did not respond by military means, but from this the probability of igniting a real war between the West and Russia has not yet disappeared.

Recently, due to geopolitical tensions, investors did not pay any attention to the data of economic statistics that came out. And they generally continued to point out that the US Federal Reserve will not only continue the process of raising interest rates, but it can also increase the number of increases this year from three to four. The latest values of inflation indicators clearly indicate this. But the data from the eurozone, coming out recently, insistently indicate that its economy is losing momentum and against the background of a decrease in inflationary pressures, the ECB will find it difficult to radically change its current parameters of monetary policy.

The decision of the Russian Federation has not yet responded to the launch of missiles with a blow for blow, and the appeal to other measures of resistance indicated the desire to peacefully resolve this situation, but if everything goes wrongly, the risk of a military conflict will increase. And in this case, we should expect a sharp drop in the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, as well as the US dollar. In the wake of these events, oil prices will continue to rally.

But if at the beginning of next week there will be a compromise, on the contrary, it will lead to a noticeable drop in prices for "black gold", the growth of the US dollar and the Russian currency. The likelihood of the beginning of the negotiation process is as real as the beginning of the military conflict. Much will depend on the American side. Today, just like last week, the crisis in Syria will be in the focus of market players.

Forecast of the day:

The USDCAD pair is trading below the level of 1.2620. Prices may continue to grow locally if crude oil prices also continue to fall locally. On this wave, the pair can grow to 1.2700-10.

Oil prices are under strong pressure on the wave of a certain drop in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East around Syria. The pair fell to the level of 66.50, which opens the way for its local reduction to 65.15.