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EUR / USD
The euro finally failed to withstand the fundamental pressure, being at the upper border of the medium-range range of 1.2210-1.2410. Yesterday, the market received another negative for the euro area. The euro zone's balance of payments in February's estimate amounted to 35.1 billion euros against 39.0 billion in January (revised from 37.6 billion). Let the forecast assume a decrease in Current Account to 32.3 billion euros, but this trend does not cancel the deterioration. American government bonds also showed themselves. For two days, the yield on 5-year securities rose from 2.686% to 2.760%, the yield on 10-year bonds during this time increased from 2.829% to 2.917%. In the markets, there was a firm impression that achieving a yield of 10-year securities of 3.00% and above would create an irreversible pressure on the euro, as it would reveal the overvaluation of the European currency. However, in the second half of February, the yield on 10-year government bonds reached 2.957%, and then such patterns did not rise very sharply, and this creates an information background in the old key "has already begun." The volume of trading is rising for the fourth consecutive day. Market expectations for a four-fold increase in the rate for one day jumped from 36.5% to 38.3%.
In the US, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia this month increased from 22.3 to 23.2 against the expectation of a decrease to 20.8. Weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits remains at low levels: 232 thousand compared with 233 thousand a week earlier and the forecast 230 thousand. The index of leading economic indicators (CB Leading Index) for the past month showed the expected growth of 0.3%.
Today, there are no important economic data. The producer price index in Germany (forecast for March is 0.2%) and the consumer confidence index in the euro area for April (forecast without a change in 0 points) against the background of current events is unlikely to have an impact. Today, amid controversy at the IMF and World Bank conference, whose participants are skeptical about increasing the capitalization of these structures, the dollar may continue to strengthen.
We are waiting for the decline of the euro to 1.2250.
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