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03.05.201800:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Statistics on the eurozone disappointed investors again

Long-term review
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Weak data on GDP growth in the eurozone in the first quarter of this year, as well as in the manufacturing sector, again exerted pressure on the European currency, which after a small morning correction returned to the day's lows, paired with the US dollar.

According to the report of the statistics agency, the growth of the euro area economy in the first quarter slowed. Thus, the euro area's GDP in the 1st quarter of this year increased by 1.7% against 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017. Despite the decline in the 1st quarter of this year, many experts predict that the situation will stabilize by mid-summer, and in general expect that in 2018 the euro area economy will grow by about 2.4%.

Such a good support should be provided by the labor market, which continues its gradual growth, while unemployment returned to its pre-crisis level of 8.5%.

From a number of countries, only the index of supply managers PMI for the manufacturing sector of Italy in April this year was significantly lower than the forecasts of economists. According to IHS Markit, the index fell to 53.5 points against 55.1 points in March.

The index of supply managers PMI for the manufacturing sector of France in April this year rose to 53.8 points against 53.7 points in March, while economists predicted its value in the region would be at 53.4 points.

But the similar index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in Germany in April this year fell to 58.1 points from 58.2 points, which in general did not affect the market, as the data fully coincided with the forecasts of economists who also expected a decline in the index down to 58.1 points.

In general, the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector in the eurozone dropped to 56.2 points against 56.6 points in March, with an estimated decline to 56 points. It should be noted that the value above 50 points, even in spite of the decrease in comparison with the previous month, indicates the growth of activity in the sector.

The British pound managed to restore its position against the US dollar after the release of data on activity in the construction sector in the UK.

According to the IHS Markit report, the PMI's supply managers index for the UK construction sector in April this year was 52.5 points against 47.0 points in March. As noted in the report, the most active activity was in housing construction, while activity in the construction of commercial buildings grew very little.

Exchange Rates 03.05.2018 analysis

Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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