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03.05.201810:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Time to correct the euro?

Long-term review
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The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of world currencies after the Fed decided on interest rates, as well as comments on further prospects for their increase.

Data on the U.S. labor market also supported the dollar.

According to the report of Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics, employment in the private sector of the U.S. grew in April and turned out to be stronger than forecasts.

The report shows the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 204,000 in April, while economists forecast the number of new jobs to be at 190,000. The data for March were revised downwards o 228,000 from 241,000.

As I noted above, all the attention of traders in the afternoon was focused on the decision of the Fed. Although, practically speaking, no one expected significant changes in the policy. The whole focus was shifted to the details of further rate hikes, which, unfortunately, were not disclosed.

Yesterday, the Fed left the range of interest rates for federal funds unchanged between 1.50% and 1.75%. The Committee on Open Market Operations voted by the number of 8 votes to 0. The discount rate was also maintained at 2.25%.

Exchange Rates 03.05.2018 analysis

The Fed said that it expects further gradual increases in the key interest rate, but no other details have been disclosed.

It is important to note the fact that the phrase disappeared from the statement about the close observation of inflationary dynamics since inflation came close to 2% since March.

The Fed believes that the risks to the economic outlook appear to be approximately balanced, as economic activity grows at a moderate pace. This allows predicting a moderate increase of economic activity in the medium term.

As for the labor market, the situation will remain good, which also allows not to "tighten" with the increase of interest rates in the near future, according to the regulator.

The reaction of U.S. dollar buyers was quite normal. When during the last two weeks, the U.S. dollar strengthened its positions. Despite the decisions of the Fed, it clearly denotes that it is necessary to fix profit, which can only be made on an important economic data.

As for the technical picture of EUR/USD pair, euro buyers need to catch on the support level of 1.1980, from which the break of the upper boundary of the descending channel will lead to the renewal of the large resistance levels of 1.2025 and 1.2065.

Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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