06.06.201822:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold monitors the Fed

Having closed in the red zone for two months in a row, gold begins to rise from the ashes amid increasing rumors that the 6-week US dollar rally has come to an end. The escalation of trade tensions with China, Mexico, and Canada on the part of Washington testifies to the interest of the US administration in the weakness of its own currency. It was such speculation in the market during the height of the trade wars in the 1990s and 2000s that lowered the USD index by 20% and 12%. According to TD Securities, already in the fourth quarter of the precious metal will exceed the mark of $ 1400 per ounce, which was last seen in 2013. The company forecasts an average price of $ 1375 in October-December.

Dynamics of gold and dollar

The gradual decline in political risks in Italy after the announcement of the new Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte that the issue of the republic's exit from the eurozone is not on the agenda, as well as rumors about China's readiness to increase US imports of agricultural and energy goods by $ 70 billion in response to the abolition of tariffs The US reduced the demand for safe haven assets. Does not find gold support and in the physical asset market. According to authoritative sources Bloomberg, who wished to remain anonymous, purchases of precious metals by India in May fell to 77.6 tons (-39% m / m). According to the results of the third month of the spring of 2017, imports amounted to 126.2 tons. In January-May of this year, the figure fell to 289.3 tons (-42% y / y). One of the reasons is the weakness of the rupee, which has depreciated by 5% against the US dollar since early 2018.

Dynamics of gold in rupees and dollars

However, if during the rest of the year the world economy synchronizes its growth, including thanks to the restoration of GDP in the eurozone, then the forces of dollar "bulls" will begin to melt before our eyes, which will support both rupee and Indian imports. An indicative example is the second half of 2017, when talks about the normalization of monetary policy by central banks-competitors of the Federal Reserve made from the American currency an outsider G10.

It is possible that the gold could rush up after the euro got rid of political chains already now, however, the offensive movement of the bulls on XAU / USD is holding back the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 13. The futures market gives a 94% probability of raising the federal funds rate to 2%, and precious metals traditionally fall before the historic meetings of the Fed, so that after them, take off thanks to the implementation of the "sell on the rumor, buy on facts" principle. Judging by the actual for 2016-2017 templates, it makes sense to form long positions on gold immediately after the announcement of the verdict of the Federal Reserve.

Technically, the "bulls" leave no attempts to withdraw quotes from the descending channel, take the resistance by $ 1302 per ounce and activate the "Crab" pattern. If they succeed, the chances of achieving a target of 161.8% will increase. It corresponds to $ 1,350. On the contrary, a successful support test at $ 1,288 will open the way for the "bears" to the south as part of the "Expanding Wedge" pattern.

Gold, daily chart