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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 76p - 200p - 110p - 125p - 145p.
The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 131n (129p).
The pound sterling paired with the US dollar for the first time on the trading day of the week stood in one place. Even information about the mutual threats of Iran and the US did not affect the course of trading on the instrument. At the same time, from a fundamental point of view, the pound sterling can still continue to strengthen against the dollar. The trade war, the escalation of the conflict with Iran, the words of Trump that the Fed should not raise the rate, as it adversely affects the dollar rate, which is growing and makes more difficult the servicing of US public debt, should affect the willingness of traders to buy US currency. Plus, on the side of Jerome Powell, head of the Fed, rose Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF. She said that the trade duties imposed by the States, and the reciprocal trade restrictions can reduce world GDP by 0.5%. It seems to be a bit, however, this is a decline in GDP instead of its growth. Thus, it seems that the world public and even US officials are beginning to be skeptical about Trump's plans to conquer the world and impose his own playing conditions. Unfortunately, no one knows how the trade war ends. It may happen that many countries, recognizing the strength of the US in this matter, will eventually make concessions. Then Trump will be "on horseback", and demand for the US dollar may skyrocket in the medium term. However, this is exactly what will be disadvantageous to Trump. Thus, the US leader has to solve a serious question, how to win a trade war, without increasing the demand for the dollar? As for the pound sterling, it can continue its consolidation only if frustrating macroeconomic reports stop coming from Britain, and the country will still be able to agree with the EU on Brexit terms, without making any concessions. And this is already a serious challenge for the government of Theresa May, which increasingly disappoints the public, showing its weak ability to set realistic plans and implement them.
Trading recommendations:
The currency pair GBP / USD began to decline, but the movements on Monday are very weak. While the price remains above the critical line, the chances of continuing to move upward with the target of 1.3209 remain. Thus, now longlines are still relevant for small lots.
Sell-positions are recommended to be renewed with the targets 1.3055 and 1.2961, if the bears are fixed below the Kijun-sen line. The signal for the sale of the "dead cross" is still preserved, which means that the chances of resuming the downward trend are also preserved.
In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations to the illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen is a red line.
Kijun-sen is a blue line.
Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span is a green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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