16.10.201812:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Who will win and who will lose in the oil conflict?

In connection with the rise in oil prices observed during the current year, experts seek to assess the chances of a number of states claiming leadership in this field. They are trying to predict for which countries this recovery will be favorable, and for which countries, economically unprofitable, capable of causing damage.

According to experts, a sharp change in energy prices always has an impact on the economies of most countries. The economy of any state is unique in its own way, so the dynamics of prices for black gold affect it differently. For example, such an oil producer and exporter of raw materials like Russia, high prices help increase foreign exchange earnings in the treasury, create a "safety cushion".

However, many countries importing black gold do not get any benefit from this. An example of this is Turkey, which has to supply almost all of its oil needs. The situation in the country was negatively affected by the collapse of the national currency and inflation at about 25%.

According to the calculations of specialists, developing economies are considered to be the most sensitive to rising energy prices. For example, in South Africa, where the cost of gasoline is tied to the Brent oil quotes, a sharp rise in prices, combined with a weakening national currency, can accelerate inflation to a record level of 6%. The Brazilian national currency, the real, has fallen considerably against the background of a corruption scandal, although it usually rises in price following the rise in oil prices.

As a result, the largest oil producers, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, benefit from the rise in oil prices. The kingdom is considered a kind of "safe haven", especially against the background of sales in emerging markets. According to experts, at present, the correlation of shares with Brent oil has increased to a maximum in 15 months.

At the moment, a barrel of Brent oil mixture is trading below $ 88. Note that this figure is necessary for the largest Arab economy for a balanced budget for the current year. In this regard, the Saudi authorities are planning to invest in programs that guarantee the reduction of the country's economy from black gold.

Investors are counting on price stabilization in the global black gold market. Many of them took a wait-and-see attitude, especially after active sales in stock markets.