19.10.201808:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The dollar again takes the initiative

The content of the FOMC minutes of the meeting for September 26, published on Wednesday evening, did not become a revelation for investors. Yet, the general tone was still slightly more aggressive than predicted. The markets reacted with a decrease in stock indices since they did not see signs of a likely decrease in the rate of growth in the text. The dollar strengthened across the whole range of currencies.

It has been noted that there has been a decline in economic development. This is a statement that's given that it's given that it's not a condition. Consumerism high.

Another risk noted by the Fed is a high likelihood of rising inflation above the 2% target, which is another reason for the increase in interest rates above forecast values.

The text of the protocol clearly indicates the Fed's intention to maintain investor confidence that the rate will continue to rise in accordance with the plan. For the dollar, the situation is developing in a favorable wherein the bullish sentiments are increasing and weak macroeconomic statistics can change them. Since no important reports are expected by the end of the week, the dollar will realize an opportunity to strengthen.

Eurozone

The external background for the euro is negative, the decline during the day is more likely. EURUSD growth is limited by resistance at 1.1530 and the support at 1.1430.

Great Britain

The EU summit opened in Brussels has not yet brought any positive news, the parties are still far from a decision that suits everyone.

The report on retail sales for September lead to a solid negative, there was a decrease of 0.8% on physical sales and the amount spent on purchases by -0.6%), which is weaker than expected data and worsen inflation expectations.

The GBP/USD pair managed to hold above support 1.3077. Today, it is possible to decline to 1.3042 / 48 and the resistance will be at 1.3177. Yet, it is unlikely for this level to be reached until Friday.

Oil

Oil continues to be adjusted after the 4-year high reached on October 3. The reasons for the correction are political rather than economical since the chances of adopting the NOPEC bill in the US have increased, which is directly aimed at curbing the influence of OPEC. The adoption of this bill will allow the United States to extend its domestic legal right to international institutions in order to "punish" OPEC for price manipulation. It is obvious that the US wants to keep the right to manipulate prices exclusively for itself.

Fearing the adoption of the bill, OPEC refuses any public discussion of oil prices, which serves as a cooling factor for the bulls in the raw materials market.

There are other reasons for the correction. According to the EIA, the commercial oil reserves in the US rose to 6.5 million barrels last week but the refinery's workload did not decrease, which may indicate an overabundance of production. In September, Russia updated the post-Soviet maximum in terms of production, and Iran announced that it had found new buyers for its oil and was not worried about the possibility of reducing production.

Considering all perspectives, oil is in search of the lower limit of the price range, in connection with which we can expect Brent to decline to 76.30 around one or in the next two weeks.