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The euro managed to get above $ 1.15, although not for long. Such a move was favored by the statement of the Italian government about intentions to remain in the currency bloc. Rome made it clear that it feels comfortable in the eurozone and the EU. There is only one desire, to change the rules a little. The conciliatory rhetoric probably had the goal of reassuring market participants, who boosted the yield of local bonds and expanded their differential with German securities to a maximum of 5 years. This factor is regarded by investors as an increase in political risks and puts pressure on the EUR / USD rate. However, the compromise between Rome and Brussels is still far away.
EM currencies managed to "squeeze" the dollar against the background of the Shanghai Composite growth. The Chinese authorities advised to pay attention not to the slowdown of the economy, but to the indicator itself (+ 6.5% year-on-year), which testifies to the good health of the Middle Kingdom. The fact that the currencies of developing countries have damaged trends against the dollar is in doubt. Most likely, we are dealing with a short-term offensive.
Not the least role in easing the US currency was played by concerns about the possibility of the US imposing sanctions against Saudi Arabia because of the murder of a journalist. In this case, Brent quotes can make a breakthrough and pass through the mark of $ 100 per barrel, which will adversely affect US foreign trade.
What will affect the pair EUR / USD
Important events for this week will be the meeting of the European Central Bank and the publication of the first assessment of US economic growth for the third quarter. Note that a month ago, Mario Draghi was optimistic about the impact of wage growth on core inflation. However, the sluggish dynamics of Core CPI reinforces the risks of the "pigeon" rhetoric of the head of the ECB. Together with the expected moderately vigorous growth of US GDP (+ 3.4% in quarterly terms), this creates prerequisites for the bear attacks on the EUR / USD pair as quotations increase.
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