26.10.201801:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD for October 25, 2018

EUR/USD

At the end of Wednesday, the euro lost 79 points. During the day, the single currency came under the pressure due to weak PMI, in the evening the collapse of the US stock market increased the flight of investors from risk. The S&P 500 broad market index lost -3.09%, the yield on 5-year US government bonds fell from 3.015% to 2.939%, the dollar index increased by 0.52%.

The eurozone business activity index in the manufacturing sector (Manufacturing PMI) in October fell from 53.2 to 52.1, in the services sector (Services PMI) decreased from 54.7 to 53.3. US data on sales of new homes for September also came out worse than the forecast (553,000 versus 627,000), but the "almost panic" was already unstoppable.

Today, the European Central Bank announces the decision on monetary policy. The head of the central bank Mario Draghi, of course, is able to influence the situation, even there are assumptions in the Western media that he will do it even in the context of approaching plans to tighten monetary policy, but we doubt it. The danger of the financial crisis in Italy and the far from brilliant economic indicators of the eurozone, if they are not taken into account by the central bank, the rate will indeed be raised a month or two earlier, it will certainly keep the ECB representatives from such early promises.

Technically, the price has gone well below the control level of 1.1432, now the nearest target is the level of 1.1300 - a low of August 15 and it is the high of November 2016. It is followed by the target level of 1.1200 as an intermediate to 1.100 – support of the embedded line in the global downward price channel starting in July, 2008.